Prior record: 1-1-2 across 4 since 2010. Most recent 2012, 1-3 in La Liga. The present numbers are 1447 against 1412, and the model turns that into 51.8% / 24.5% / 23.7%.
The home side is rated higher. Logged in advance of kickoff — 48.5% / 25.3% / 26.3%. That call matched the result. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The four component numbers read 1.00, 1.43, 0.89, 1.12. The model's preferred outcome is Santander at 51.8%. The edge is split: Santander scores at the higher rate (1.00 to 0.89), Espanyol concedes at the lower (1.12 to 1.43). Played and finished 2-1. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 9.7%. The higher-rated side expects 64.0% of the points; the other side 36.0%. xG: 1.66 to 1.71. Versus the 1500 seed: -53 and -88. A decisive result carries 75.5% against 24.5% for the draw. The two ratings differ by 35 points. The three results cover 28.1 points. Neither figure is thin: 103 and 50 matches respectively sit behind them. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Santander came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding 17. A 2-0 defeat away to Osasuna (18 October) was their most recent result.
La Liga, 18 October brought an away meeting with Osasuna; Santander lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Santander hosted Valencia on 11 October (La Liga) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Celta hosted Santander (La Liga) on 19 September. For Santander, the score was 0-5: zero goals scored, five allowed. 2-7 was Santander's result against Barça on 16 September (La Liga), playing away from home; Santander lost, with two scored to seven conceded. The 12 September fixture (La Liga) paired Santander with Alavés. Santander won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one.
Santander: 18th, eight points, nine matches in the calculated La Liga standings at kickoff.
Espanyol came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding seven. A 1-0 defeat at home to Atleti (17 October) was their most recent result.
La Liga, 17 October brought a home meeting with Atleti; Espanyol lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Espanyol visited Málaga on 9 October (La Liga) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Elche travelled to face Espanyol (La Liga) on 18 September. For Espanyol, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed. 1-2 was Espanyol's result against Rayo Vallecano on 15 September (La Liga), playing away from home; Espanyol lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 12 September fixture (La Liga) paired Espanyol with Osasuna. Espanyol won 2-0 away from home, netting two goals while conceding zero.
Espanyol: 17th, eight points, nine matches in the calculated La Liga standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-1 home win for Espanyol on 19 March 2012 and a 1-0 away win for Espanyol on 22 October 2011.
After the match
Santander edged past Espanyol 2-1 on 24 October 2026. Edu Expósito opened the scoring 62 minutes into the game for Espanyol, set up by Coarasa, to make it 1-0. Jeanuel Belocian levelled it 69 minutes into the game for Santander, set up by Canales, to make it 1-1. Yassir Zabiri put Santander in front late on, in the 84th minute, set up by Álvaro Mantilla, to make it 2-1. 8 players were booked, among them Iñigo Vicente (8'), Pol Lozano (17'), Manolo González (43'), Pablo Ramon (67'), Urko González (70') and Javi Puado (89'). Every goal came after the interval. three yellow cards went to Santander. The substitution total for Santander was five. The card tally for Espanyol was five yellow cards. Espanyol made five changes. Javi Puado entered for Espanyol at 76 minutes and later was booked. The scoring record shows one lead change. Santander turned a deficit into victory.