Across 24 recorded meetings back to 2010 the split is 7-9-8 from Real Sociedad's side on wins, 32-27 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-0 in La Liga. Currently 1525 against 1453 — a 57.2% / 23.2% / 19.6% split.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +25 and -47. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The model gives 76.8% to someone winning. Between best and worst outcome there is 37.6 points of daylight. The forecast we stored before the match was 50.7% / 24.8% / 24.6%. That call matched the result. Real Sociedad sits 34.0 points above the next most likely result. In absolute terms: Real Sociedad 1.36/1.29, Levante 1.03/1.25 on attack and defence. Neither figure is thin: 48 and 49 matches respectively sit behind them. Result on the day: 2-1. Honours split: 1.36 forward for Real Sociedad, 1.25 back for Levante. 72 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The higher-rated side expects 68.8% of the points; the other side 31.2%. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 7.6%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Real Sociedad came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 14 goals and conceding 11. A 5-2 win away to Málaga (18 October) was their most recent result.
Málaga hosted Real Sociedad (La Liga) on 18 October. For Real Sociedad, the score was 5-2: five goals scored, two allowed. 3-2 was Real Sociedad's result against Deportivo on 11 October (La Liga), playing at home; Real Sociedad won, with three scored to two conceded. The 20 September fixture (La Liga) paired Real Sociedad with Valencia. Real Sociedad won 3-2 away from home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Atleti (La Liga), Real Sociedad finished 0-3 on 13 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 7 September: Real Sociedad won 3-2 against Elche away from home in La Liga, scoring three goals and allowing two.
Real Sociedad stood 5th in the results-based La Liga table before kickoff, with 16 points from nine matches.
Levante's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 12 conceded. Latest: a 3-1 win at home to Athletic on 21 October.
Playing at home against Athletic (La Liga), Levante finished 3-1 on 21 October. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 16 October: Levante drew 1-1 against Deportivo away from home in La Liga, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Sevilla FC in La Liga, Levante scored three and conceded three on 12 October; the at home result was 3-3. Levante's away from home game on 20 September (La Liga) ended 1-3 against Villarreal, with one goal for and three against. On 13 September, Barça faced Levante in La Liga: Levante lost 2-4 at home, having scored two and conceded four.
Before kickoff, La Liga's results-based standings placed Levante 14th after nine matches and ten points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-0 home win for Real Sociedad on 4 April and a 1-1 draw at Levante on 20 December 2025.
After the match
Real Sociedad edged past Levante 2-1 on 25 October 2026. Orri Oskarsson opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Real Sociedad to make it 1-0. Nacho Pérez levelled it in the 22nd minute for Levante, set up by Thiago Fernandez, to make it 1-1. Real Sociedad regained the lead through Beñat Turrientes in the 27th minute, set up by Gonçalo Guedes, to make it 2-1. Jon Martín (64'), Manuel Sánchez (75'), Yanis Musuayi (81') and Víctor García (87') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Real Sociedad are 72 points stronger than Levante. All the scoring was done by half time. Real Sociedad's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 57.2% for a win in this pairing. Real Sociedad's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 La Liga. The card tally for Real Sociedad was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Real Sociedad. three yellow cards went to Levante. The substitution total for Levante was five. After coming on for Levante in minute 46, Víctor García was booked. Yanis Musuayi was booked following entry for Levante in the 80th minute.