Across 26 recorded meetings back to 2012 the split is 8-9-9 from Celta's side on wins, 40-39 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in La Liga. The live ratings are 1477 and 1646, giving 23.3% / 24.4% / 52.4%.
The model's expected-goals figures are 1.31 and 1.41. The two ratings differ by 169 points. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.2%. The model gives 75.7% to someone winning. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. It ended 0-0. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Versus the 1500 seed: -23 and +146. With 49 and 52 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Its rounded call is 1-1. Higher rating: the away side. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 26.3% / 25.3% / 48.5%. The match did not follow it. Neither side holds both halves — Real Betis scores at 1.24, Celta concedes at 0.84. Outcomes span 29.1 points. Real Betis holds a 28.0-point edge on the next outcome. 52.4% goes to Real Betis, the model's lean. By expected share of the points: 35.5% and 64.5%. In absolute terms: Celta 0.89/0.84, Real Betis 1.24/0.99 on attack and defence.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Celta were unbeaten in their last five games, with two wins and three draws, scoring nine goals and conceding three. On 18 October, Celta recorded a 2-1 win hosting Alavés; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Santander on 19 September.
La Liga, 18 October brought a home meeting with Alavés; Celta won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Celta visited Elche on 11 October (La Liga) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Santander travelled to face Celta (La Liga) on 19 September. For Celta, the score was 5-0: five goals scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Celta's result against Málaga on 13 September (La Liga), playing at home; Celta drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 7 September fixture (La Liga) paired Celta with Getafe. Celta drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one.
Celta: 10th, 11 points, nine matches in the calculated La Liga standings at kickoff.
Real Betis's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 12 scored and 10 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 win at home to Feyenoord on 21 October; their biggest win in that spell was 5-2 at home to Osasuna on 11 October.
Against Feyenoord in Champions League, Real Betis scored one and conceded zero on 21 October; the at home result was 1-0. Real Betis's at home game on 17 October (La Liga) ended 2-5 against Barça, with two goals for and five against. On 14 October, Porto faced Real Betis in Champions League: Real Betis won 3-2 at home, having scored three and conceded two. La Liga, 11 October brought a home meeting with Osasuna; Real Betis won 5-2, a return of five goals scored and two conceded. Real Betis visited Deportivo on 20 September (La Liga) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.
19 points in nine matches put Real Betis 4th in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at Real Betis on 15 March and a 1-1 draw at Celta on 27 August 2025.
After the match
Celta and Real Betis could not be separated in a goalless draw on 25 October 2026. Ilaix Moriba (30'), Diego Llorente (43') and Sergio Carreira (80') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Real Betis 169 points stronger than Celta. The card tally for Celta was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Celta. Sergio Carreira entered for Celta at 68 minutes and later was booked. The card tally for Real Betis was one yellow card. Real Betis made five changes. Celta finished with a clean sheet. A clean sheet for Real Betis.