37 meetings sit in the record, first in 2010, aggregate 74-54. The latest was 2026, 2-0 in La Liga. The live ratings are 1812 and 1788, giving 50.1% / 24.9% / 25.1%.
Both figures rest on decent samples, 64 and 65 matches. Neither side holds both halves — Barça scores at 2.42, Real Madrid concedes at 0.86. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +312 and +288. Expected goals 3.09-2.28. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 3-2 at 5.9%. The Elo curve splits the expected points 62.5% to 37.5% here. The four component numbers read 2.42, 0.94, 1.79, 0.86. 75.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The match finished 1-2. Barça holds a 25.0-point edge on the next outcome. Most and least likely outcomes are 25.2 points apart. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Reduced to one result that is 3-2. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The model's preferred outcome is Barça at 50.1%. A 24-point spread sits between the two figures. Before kickoff our model had this at 61.9% / 22.0% / 16.1%. The result went the other way.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Barça's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 17 scored and 8 conceded. Latest: a 4-2 defeat away to PSG on 20 October; their biggest win in that spell was 5-2 away to Real Betis on 17 October.
On 20 October, PSG faced Barça in Champions League: Barça lost 2-4 away from home, having scored two and conceded four. La Liga, 17 October brought an away meeting with Real Betis; Barça won 5-2, a return of five goals scored and two conceded. Barça visited Galatasaray on 13 October (Champions League) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Getafe travelled to face Barça (La Liga) on 10 October. For Barça, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 3-1 was Barça's result against Sevilla FC on 19 September (La Liga), playing away from home; Barça won, with three scored to one conceded.
27 points in nine matches put Barça 1st in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
14 goals for and seven against accompanied Real Madrid's four wins and one defeat across five outings. On 21 October, Real Madrid recorded a 4-1 win hosting RB Leipzig.
The 21 October fixture (Champions League) paired Real Madrid with RB Leipzig. Real Madrid won 4-1 at home, netting four goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Sevilla FC (La Liga), Real Madrid finished 4-1 on 18 October. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition. 14 October: Real Madrid won 4-3 against Roma away from home in Champions League, scoring four goals and allowing three. Against Villarreal in La Liga, Real Madrid scored one and conceded zero on 10 October; the at home result was 1-0. Real Madrid's away from home game on 20 September (La Liga) ended 1-2 against Atleti, with one goal for and two against.
Real Madrid stood 3rd in the results-based La Liga table before kickoff, with 21 points from nine matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-0 home win for Barça on 10 May and a 2-1 home win for Real Madrid on 26 October 2025.
After the match
Real Madrid edged past Barça 2-1 on 25 October 2026. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Real Madrid to make it 1-0. Raphinha levelled it 61 minutes into the game for Barça, set up by Pedri, to make it 1-1. Real Madrid regained the lead through Kylian Mbappé late on, in the 87th minute, set up by Eduardo Camavinga, to make it 2-1. Aurélien Tchouameni (46'), Anthony Gordon (84'), Cucurella (90'), Kylian Mbappé (90'), Karim Adeyemi (90') and Álex Balde (90') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Real Madrid only a 25.1% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Real Madrid's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 La Liga and the 2026/27 Champions League. The card tally for Barça was three yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Barça. Álex Balde entered for Barça at 30 minutes and later was booked. After coming on for Barça in minute 85, Karim Adeyemi was booked. The card tally for Real Madrid was three yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Real Madrid. Eduardo Camavinga provided an assist following entry for Real Madrid in the 80th minute.