On file: 30 previous meetings dating to 2010, 36-36 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in La Liga. Currently 1442 against 1548 — a 30.9% / 26.6% / 42.5% split.
Its rounded call is 1-2. Win-or-lose totals 73.4%; the draw takes the rest. Goal expectation splits 1.31 to 2.14. A 11.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Behind them are 48 and 61 rated matches. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. A 15.9-point range top to bottom. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Both components point the same way, toward Villarreal: 1.40 to 0.82 going forward, 1.07 to 1.13 going back. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The model's preferred outcome is Villarreal at 42.5%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 32.6% / 27.1% / 40.4%. It landed. A 106-point spread sits between the two figures. The match finished 1-2. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -58 and +48. The four component numbers read 0.82, 1.13, 1.40, 1.07. The higher-rated side expects 55.9% of the points; the other side 44.1%. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 9.5% — not a strong call.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Valencia: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; five goals scored, six conceded. Athletic were their latest opponents, at home on 17 October: a 0-0 draw.
0-0 was Valencia's result against Athletic on 17 October (La Liga), playing at home; Valencia drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 11 October fixture (La Liga) paired Valencia with Santander. Valencia drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Real Sociedad (La Liga), Valencia finished 2-3 on 20 September. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 15 September: Valencia won 1-0 against Alavés away from home in La Liga, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Sevilla FC in La Liga, Valencia scored zero and conceded one on 11 September; the away from home result was 0-1.
six points in nine matches put Valencia 19th in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
nine goals for and seven against accompanied Villarreal's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 20 October, Villarreal recorded a 4-3 defeat visiting Liverpool.
The 20 October fixture (Champions League) paired Villarreal with Liverpool. Villarreal lost 3-4 away from home, netting three goals while conceding four. Playing at home against Elche (La Liga), Villarreal finished 0-0 on 17 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 13 October: Villarreal won 3-1 against Napoli at home in Champions League, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Real Madrid in La Liga, Villarreal scored zero and conceded one on 10 October; the away from home result was 0-1. Villarreal's at home game on 20 September (La Liga) ended 3-1 against Levante, with three goals for and one against.
Villarreal: 14th, nine points, nine matches in the calculated La Liga standings at kickoff.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Villarreal on 22 February and a 2-0 away win for Villarreal on 25 October 2025.
After the match
Villarreal edged past Valencia 2-1 on 24 October 2026. Pepelu opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 38th minute for Valencia to make it 1-0. Alex Freeman levelled it 69 minutes into the game for Villarreal, set up by Sergi Cardona, to make it 1-1. Georges Mikautadze put Villarreal in front in the 96th minute, set up by Alberto Moleiro, to make it 2-1. Pape Gueye (79') and Harvey Elliott (89') were sent off. 7 players were booked, among them Dani Raba (34'), Renato Veiga (37'), Ayoze Pérez (43'), Tajon Buchanan (59'), Pablo Maffeo (60') and Guido Rodríguez (62'). The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Villarreal 106 points stronger than Valencia. Valencia picked up four yellow cards and one red card. The substitution total for Valencia was five. Dani Raba, on in the 14th minute, was booked. Harvey Elliott entered for Valencia at 70 minutes and later was booked and was sent off. Villarreal: three yellow cards and one red card. five changes were recorded for Villarreal. Sergi Cardona provided an assist following entry for Villarreal in the 65th minute. Alberto Moleiro, on in the 65th minute, provided an assist. Georges Mikautadze entered for Villarreal at 66 minutes and later scored in minute 96. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. The winners, Villarreal, had been behind.