On record: 25 meetings from 2011, 37-25 on aggregate, 6 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-2 in La Liga. Today those sides rate 1517 and 1433, 84 apart, which resolves to 58.8% / 22.8% / 18.4%.
Both components point the same way, toward Sevilla FC: 1.06 to 1.04 going forward, 1.08 to 1.20 going back. A decisive result carries 77.2% against 22.8% for the draw. The forecast we stored before the match was 60.2% / 22.4% / 17.4%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Ratings sit 84 apart. Attack/defence pairs: 1.06/1.08 and 1.04/1.20. Top of the distribution: Sevilla FC, 58.8%. The distribution runs from 58.8% down to 18.4%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +17 and -67. The xG line reads 1.90 to 1.51. The tie closed out 2-0. With 49 and 49 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Sevilla FC holds a 36.0-point edge on the next outcome. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Expected shares 70.2% against 29.8% on Elo.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Sevilla FC's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 10 conceded. Real Madrid were their latest opponents, away on 18 October: a 4-1 defeat.
1-4 was Sevilla FC's result against Real Madrid on 18 October (La Liga), playing away from home; Sevilla FC lost, with one scored to four conceded. The 12 October fixture (La Liga) paired Sevilla FC with Levante. Sevilla FC drew 3-3 away from home, netting three goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Barça (La Liga), Sevilla FC finished 1-3 on 19 September. Their score comprised one goal, against three from the opposition. 16 September: Sevilla FC won 1-0 against Deportivo away from home in La Liga, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Valencia in La Liga, Sevilla FC scored one and conceded zero on 11 September; the at home result was 1-0.
14 points in nine matches put Sevilla FC 6th in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
five goals for and 12 against accompanied Osasuna's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. On 18 October, Osasuna recorded a 2-0 win hosting Santander.
Osasuna's at home game on 18 October (La Liga) ended 2-0 against Santander, with two goals for and zero against. On 11 October, Real Betis faced Osasuna in La Liga: Osasuna lost 2-5 away from home, having scored two and conceded five. La Liga, 19 September brought a home meeting with Rayo Vallecano; Osasuna drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Osasuna visited Atleti on 16 September (La Liga) and lost 0-4; their goals totalled zero, compared with four conceded. Espanyol travelled to face Osasuna (La Liga) on 12 September. For Osasuna, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed.
Osasuna stood 12th in the results-based La Liga table before kickoff, with 11 points from nine matches.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 home win for Osasuna on 26 April and a 1-0 home win for Sevilla FC on 8 November 2025.
After the match
Sevilla FC beat Osasuna 2-0 on 26 October 2026. Isaac opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Sevilla FC, set up by Youssouf Fofana, to make it 1-0. Félix Correia added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for Sevilla FC, set up by Youssouf Fofana, to make it 2-0. Catena (29'), Isaac (55') and Valentin Rosier (68') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Sevilla FC are 84 points stronger than Osasuna. Sevilla FC won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 58.8%. The card tally for Sevilla FC was one yellow card. Sevilla FC made four changes. Osasuna picked up two yellow cards. Osasuna: five substitutions. A clean sheet for Sevilla FC.