On record: 10 meetings from 2010, 15-10 on aggregate, 4 drawn. Their most recent was 2018, 2-2 in La Liga. The present numbers are 1515 against 1460, and the model turns that into 54.7% / 23.8% / 21.5%.
Outcomes span 33.2 points. The tie closed out 1-1. Deportivo carries the largest share, 54.7%. As a single number the model says 1-1. Deportivo leads the distribution by 30.9 points over the draw. Elo expected shares: 66.6% and 33.4%. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 9.8%. Each side owns one half of the argument — Levante the scoring rate at 1.04, Deportivo the conceding rate at 1.02. Someone wins 76.2% of the time by this model. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Expected goals 1.87-1.44. Neither figure is thin: 252 and 46 matches respectively sit behind them. A 55-point difference on the rating scale. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +15 and -40. Before kickoff our model had this at 57.1% / 23.2% / 19.6%. The result went the other way. Raw profiles are 1.01 and 1.02 against 1.04 and 1.25.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Deportivo: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; seven goals scored, eight conceded. Latest: a 3-2 defeat away to Real Sociedad on 11 October.
Deportivo visited Real Sociedad on 11 October (La Liga) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Real Betis travelled to face Deportivo (La Liga) on 20 September. For Deportivo, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 0-1 was Deportivo's result against Sevilla FC on 16 September (La Liga), playing at home; Deportivo lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 13 September fixture (La Liga) paired Deportivo with Getafe. Deportivo drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Villarreal (La Liga), Deportivo finished 3-2 on 5 September. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition.
Before kickoff, La Liga's results-based standings placed Deportivo 8th after eight matches and ten points.
Levante came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding 12. A 3-3 draw at home to Sevilla FC (12 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-2 at home to Real Betis on 29 August.
La Liga, 12 October brought a home meeting with Sevilla FC; Levante drew 3-3, a return of three goals scored and three conceded. Levante visited Villarreal on 20 September (La Liga) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded. Barça travelled to face Levante (La Liga) on 13 September. For Levante, the score was 2-4: two goals scored, four allowed. 0-0 was Levante's result against Málaga on 6 September (La Liga), playing away from home; Levante drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 29 August fixture (La Liga) paired Levante with Real Betis. Levante won 5-2 at home, netting five goals while conceding two.
Levante: 17th, six points, seven matches in the calculated La Liga standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-2 draw at Deportivo on 27 January 2018 and a 2-2 draw at Levante on 26 August 2017.
After the match
Deportivo and Levante drew 1-1 on 16 October 2026. Nsongo Tonfack opened the scoring 63 minutes into the game for Deportivo to make it 1-0. Dani Requena levelled it late on, in the 82nd minute for Levante, set up by Petar Ratkov, to make it 1-1. Iván Romero (33'), Luismi Cruz (42'), Adrián de la Fuente (89') and Adrià Altimira (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Deportivo are 55 points stronger than Levante. two yellow cards went to Deportivo. The substitution total for Deportivo was five. Adrià Altimira, on in the 62nd minute, was booked. Levante: two yellow cards. Levante made four changes. Petar Ratkov, on in the 69th minute, provided an assist.