On file: 17 previous meetings dating to 2010, 21-21 on goals. Last time: 2024, 0-1 in Copa del Rey. Currently 1373 against 1514 — a 26.6% / 25.4% / 48.0% split.
The higher rating belongs to the away side. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 9.4%. Its point estimate is 1-2. On expected goals the model has it 1.31 against 2.25. Final score: 2-5. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -127 and +14. Honours split: 1.35 forward for Real Sociedad, 1.23 back for Málaga. Someone wins 74.6% of the time by this model. Real Sociedad sits 21.4 points above the next most likely result. The distribution runs from 48.0% down to 25.4%. Real Sociedad carries the largest share, 48.0%. The rating gap itself is 141 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The four component numbers read 0.67, 1.23, 1.35, 1.32. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. By expected share of the points: 39.2% and 60.8%. Neither figure is thin: 340 and 47 matches respectively sit behind them.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
three goals for and six against accompanied Málaga's three draws and two defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 9 October, Málaga recorded a 1-1 draw hosting Espanyol.
The 9 October fixture (La Liga) paired Málaga with Espanyol. Málaga drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Getafe (La Liga), Málaga finished 0-1 on 20 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 17 September: Málaga lost 1-3 against Villarreal at home in La Liga, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against Celta in La Liga, Málaga scored one and conceded one on 13 September; the away from home result was 1-1. Málaga's at home game on 6 September (La Liga) ended 0-0 against Levante, with zero goals for and zero against.
Málaga stood 20th in the results-based La Liga table before kickoff, with four points from eight matches.
Real Sociedad: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; nine goals scored, nine conceded. Deportivo were their latest opponents, at home on 11 October: a 3-2 win.
3-2 was Real Sociedad's result against Deportivo on 11 October (La Liga), playing at home; Real Sociedad won, with three scored to two conceded. The 20 September fixture (La Liga) paired Real Sociedad with Valencia. Real Sociedad won 3-2 away from home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Atleti (La Liga), Real Sociedad finished 0-3 on 13 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 7 September: Real Sociedad won 3-2 against Elche away from home in La Liga, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Celta in La Liga, Real Sociedad scored zero and conceded zero on 3 September; the at home result was 0-0.
Before kickoff, La Liga's results-based standings placed Real Sociedad 6th after eight matches and 13 points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-0 away win for Real Sociedad on 7 January 2024 and a 2-0 home win for Málaga on 22 April 2018.
After the match
Real Sociedad comfortably beat Málaga 5-2 on 18 October 2026. Takefusa Kubo opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Real Sociedad, set up by Héctor Fort, to make it 1-0. Orri Oskarsson added to the tally in the 26th minute for Real Sociedad to make it 2-0. Adrián pulled one back 54 minutes into the game for Málaga, set up by Pablo Martínez, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Real Sociedad extended the lead through Mikel Oyarzabal 59 minutes into the game, set up by Takefusa Kubo, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Málaga reduced the deficit through Pablo Martínez 66 minutes into the game to make it 2-3. Mikel Oyarzabal scored the 6th goal for Real Sociedad 67 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Jon Martín, to make it 4-2. Real Sociedad extended the lead 73 minutes into the game; the match's 7th goal came through Gonçalo Guedes to make it 5-2. Jon Martín (37') and Mamadou Sarr (62') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Real Sociedad 141 points stronger than Málaga. On current ratings the model puts Real Sociedad at around 2.25 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. five changes were recorded for Málaga. two yellow cards went to Real Sociedad. The substitution total for Real Sociedad was five. Gonçalo Guedes, on in the 61st minute, scored in minute 73.