On record: 12 meetings from 2010, 20-13 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2018, 5-0 in La Liga. The present numbers are 1488 against 1511, and the model turns that into 42.6% / 26.6% / 30.8%.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -12 and +11. Final score: 3-2. The leading outcome clears the second by 11.8 points. Scorelines above 8%: 1. Deportivo's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 44.0%. One half each — Real Sociedad in front on 1.20, Deportivo behind on 1.15. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 37.7% / 27.6% / 34.7%. It landed. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 46 and 244 rated matches respectively. In absolute terms: Real Sociedad 1.20/1.31, Deportivo 1.02/1.15 on attack and defence. Win-or-lose totals 73.4%; the draw takes the rest. On expected goals the model has it 2.05 against 1.82. The away side is rated higher. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 8.0%. Real Sociedad carries the largest share, 42.6%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. A 16.0-point range top to bottom. Distance between the ratings: 23 points, narrow on this scale.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Real Sociedad: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, eight conceded. Valencia were their latest opponents, away on 20 September: a 3-2 win.
Playing away from home against Valencia (La Liga), Real Sociedad finished 3-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition. 13 September: Real Sociedad lost 0-3 against Atleti at home in La Liga, scoring zero goals and allowing three. Against Elche in La Liga, Real Sociedad scored three and conceded two on 7 September; the away from home result was 3-2. Real Sociedad's at home game on 3 September (La Liga) ended 0-0 against Celta, with zero goals for and zero against. On 29 August, Espanyol faced Real Sociedad in La Liga: Real Sociedad won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one.
Before kickoff, La Liga's results-based standings placed Real Sociedad 8th after seven matches and ten points.
Deportivo's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 6 conceded. Real Betis were their latest opponents, at home on 20 September: a 1-1 draw.
1-1 was Deportivo's result against Real Betis on 20 September (La Liga), playing at home; Deportivo drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 16 September fixture (La Liga) paired Deportivo with Sevilla FC. Deportivo lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Getafe (La Liga), Deportivo finished 1-1 on 13 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 5 September: Deportivo won 3-2 against Villarreal away from home in La Liga, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Valencia in La Liga, Deportivo scored three and conceded one on 30 August; the at home result was 3-1.
ten points in seven matches put Deportivo 7th in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 5-0 home win for Real Sociedad on 2 February 2018 and a 4-2 away win for Real Sociedad on 10 September 2017.
After the match
Real Sociedad edged past Deportivo 3-2 on 11 October 2026. Jon Martín opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Real Sociedad, set up by Carlos Soler, to make it 1-0. Arsen Zakharyan added to the tally in the 34th minute for Real Sociedad to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Real Sociedad extended the lead through Gonçalo Guedes 54 minutes into the game, set up by Ander Barrenetxea, to make it 3-0. Mario Soriano got one back 61 minutes into the game for Deportivo, set up by Riki Rodríguez, to make it 1-3. With the 5th goal, Deportivo reduced the deficit through Peke from the penalty spot 69 minutes into the game to make it 2-3. Pablo Marin (66') and Lorenzo Amatucci (90') were sent off. David Mella (40'), José Giménez (71') and Yangel Herrera (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Deportivo just 23 rating points ahead of Real Sociedad, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. one yellow card and one red card went to Real Sociedad. The substitution total for Real Sociedad was four. Deportivo picked up two yellow cards and one red card. Deportivo: five substitutions. After coming on for Deportivo in minute 46, Riki Rodríguez provided an assist. Lorenzo Amatucci was sent off following entry for Deportivo in the 57th minute.