Across 16 recorded meetings back to 2010 the split is 3-5-8 from Málaga's side on wins, 13-22 on goals. The last was 2018, 1-4 in La Liga. Currently 1449 against 1416 — a 51.5% / 24.6% / 23.9% split.
Spread across the three results is 27.6 points. Espanyol has the better scoring rate (0.87) and Málaga the better defensive one (0.97). Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -51 and -84. The four component numbers read 0.77, 0.97, 0.87, 1.07. Final score: 1-1. The xG line reads 1.23 to 1.15. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Ratings sit 33 apart. The higher rating expects 63.7% of the points, the lower 36.3%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. A decisive result carries 75.4% against 24.6% for the draw. Rounded, that is 1-1. 51.5% goes to Málaga, the model's lean. Málaga leads the distribution by 26.9 points over the draw. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 332 and 46 matches. The forecast we stored before the match was 53.0% / 24.2% / 22.8%. That one did not come off.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Málaga: two draws and three defeats over five games; two goals scored, nine conceded, failing to score in three of those games, without a win. Getafe were their latest opponents, away on 20 September: a 1-0 defeat.
Málaga visited Getafe on 20 September (La Liga) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Villarreal travelled to face Málaga (La Liga) on 17 September. For Málaga, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed. 1-1 was Málaga's result against Celta on 13 September (La Liga), playing away from home; Málaga drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 6 September fixture (La Liga) paired Málaga with Levante. Málaga drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Real Madrid (La Liga), Málaga finished 0-4 on 30 August. Their score comprised zero goals, against four from the opposition.
three points in seven matches put Málaga 20th in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
Espanyol: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, eight conceded. Elche were their latest opponents, at home on 18 September: a 3-1 defeat.
Against Elche in La Liga, Espanyol scored one and conceded three on 18 September; the at home result was 1-3. Espanyol's away from home game on 15 September (La Liga) ended 1-2 against Rayo Vallecano, with one goal for and two against. On 12 September, Osasuna faced Espanyol in La Liga: Espanyol won 2-0 away from home, having scored two and conceded zero. La Liga, 6 September brought a home meeting with Sevilla FC; Espanyol drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Espanyol visited Real Sociedad on 29 August (La Liga) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded.
seven points in seven matches put Espanyol 15th in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 4-1 home win for Espanyol on 13 May 2018 and a 1-0 away win for Espanyol on 8 January 2018.
After the match
Málaga and Espanyol drew 1-1 on 9 October 2026. Bryan Zaragoza opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Espanyol, set up by Coarasa, to make it 1-0. Adrián levelled it in the 93rd minute for Málaga, set up by Rafa Garrido, to make it 1-1. 9 players were booked, among them Coarasa (24'), Bryan Zaragoza (28'), Puga (28'), Chupete (41'), Omar El Hilali (60') and Carlos Dotor (66'). Málaga picked up four yellow cards. The substitution total for Málaga was five. Adam Aznou, on in the 62nd minute, was booked. Carlos Dotor entered for Málaga at 62 minutes and later was booked. After coming on for Málaga in minute 62, Adrián scored in minute 93. Espanyol picked up five yellow cards. The substitution total for Espanyol was five. Roger Hinojo was booked following entry for Espanyol in the 82nd minute.