On file: 4 previous meetings dating to 2010, 6-8 on goals. Last time: 2012, 2-2 in La Liga. Against that, current ratings read 1457 and 1478, a 21-point margin, and the model splits the tie 43.1% / 26.5% / 30.5%.
In absolute terms: Santander 0.92/1.15, Valencia 0.89/1.12 on attack and defence. Ratings sit 21 apart. First to second is a 12.6-point step, Santander over Valencia. Between best and worst outcome there is 16.6 points of daylight. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 93 and 45 matches. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Logged in advance of kickoff — 43.8% / 26.3% / 29.9%. That one did not come off. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Result on the day: 2-2. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.6%. Valencia's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 43.7%. The xG line reads 1.52 to 1.37. Someone wins 73.6% of the time by this model. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The underlying rates are near-identical — attack 0.92 against 0.89, defence 1.15 against 1.12. The model's preferred outcome is Santander at 43.1%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Santander came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding 18. A 5-0 defeat away to Celta (19 September) was their most recent result.
Santander's away from home game on 19 September (La Liga) ended 0-5 against Celta, with zero goals for and five against. On 16 September, Barça faced Santander in La Liga: Santander lost 2-7 away from home, having scored two and conceded seven. La Liga, 12 September brought a home meeting with Alavés; Santander won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Santander visited Rayo Vallecano on 5 September (La Liga) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Elche travelled to face Santander (La Liga) on 28 August. For Santander, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed.
Santander: 16th, seven points, seven matches in the calculated La Liga standings at kickoff.
four goals for and 12 against accompanied Valencia's one win and four defeats across five outings. On 20 September, Valencia recorded a 3-2 defeat hosting Real Sociedad.
The 20 September fixture (La Liga) paired Valencia with Real Sociedad. Valencia lost 2-3 at home, netting two goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Alavés (La Liga), Valencia finished 1-0 on 15 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 11 September: Valencia lost 0-1 against Sevilla FC away from home in La Liga, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Barça in La Liga, Valencia scored zero and conceded five on 6 September; the at home result was 0-5. Valencia's away from home game on 30 August (La Liga) ended 1-3 against Deportivo, with one goal for and three against.
Valencia stood 19th in the results-based La Liga table before kickoff, with four points from seven matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-2 draw at Santander on 29 January 2012 and a 4-3 home win for Valencia on 27 August 2011.
After the match
Santander and Valencia drew 2-2 on 11 October 2026. Dani Raba opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Valencia, set up by Justin de Haas, to make it 1-0. Yassir Zabiri levelled it in the 32nd minute for Santander, set up by Iñigo Vicente, to make it 1-1. Iván Martín put Santander in front 47 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Valencia drew level through David Otorbi 65 minutes into the game, set up by Javier Guerra, to make it 2-2. Pablo Ramon (22'), Guido Rodríguez (45'), Salinas (45'), Dani Raba (45'), Pablo Maffeo (72') and Iván Martín (90') were booked. three yellow cards went to Santander. The substitution total for Santander was five. Valencia: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Valencia. David Otorbi scored in minute 65 following entry for Valencia in the 58th minute. The scoring record shows one lead change.