The head-to-head counts 12 recorded meetings since 2013: 4 to Elche, 6 to Celta, 2 drawn, 9-13 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-3 in La Liga. History aside, the live ratings of 1442 and 1463 drive a 43.0% / 26.5% / 30.5% distribution.
By expected share of the points: 56.3% and 43.7%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Its rounded call is 1-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.6%. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The leading outcome clears the second by 12.5 points. The rating gap itself is 21 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. In absolute terms: Elche 0.96/1.24, Celta 0.81/0.86 on attack and defence. It ended 0-0. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 44 and 44 matches. Logged in advance of kickoff — 43.7% / 26.3% / 30.0%. The match did not follow it. Honours split: 0.96 forward for Elche, 0.86 back for Celta. xG: 1.24 to 1.35. The model's preferred outcome is Elche at 43.0%. Spread across the three results is 16.5 points. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -58 and -37.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Elche's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 11 conceded. Espanyol were their latest opponents, away on 18 September: a 3-1 win.
3-1 was Elche's result against Espanyol on 18 September (La Liga), playing away from home; Elche won, with three scored to one conceded. The 15 September fixture (La Liga) paired Elche with Real Madrid. Elche lost 2-3 at home, netting two goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Athletic (La Liga), Elche finished 1-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 7 September: Elche lost 2-3 against Real Sociedad at home in La Liga, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against Santander in La Liga, Elche scored two and conceded three on 28 August; the away from home result was 2-3.
five points in seven matches put Elche 18th in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
Celta came into the game with one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding four. On 19 September, Celta recorded a 5-0 win hosting Santander.
The 19 September fixture (La Liga) paired Celta with Santander. Celta won 5-0 at home, netting five goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Málaga (La Liga), Celta finished 1-1 on 13 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 7 September: Celta drew 1-1 against Getafe away from home in La Liga, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Real Sociedad in La Liga, Celta scored zero and conceded zero on 3 September; the away from home result was 0-0. Celta's at home game on 30 August (La Liga) ended 0-2 against Athletic, with zero goals for and two against.
Celta: 15th, seven points, seven matches in the calculated La Liga standings at kickoff.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 3-1 home win for Celta on 3 May and a 2-1 home win for Elche on 28 September 2025.
After the match
Elche and Celta could not be separated in a goalless draw on 11 October 2026. Yoel Lago (37'), Javi Rueda (59'), Aleix Febas (81') and Marc Aguado (90') were booked. Celta are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. Elche: one yellow card. Elche made four changes. The card tally for Celta was three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Celta. A clean sheet for Elche. Celta finished with a clean sheet.