On file: 4 previous meetings dating to 2023, 10-11 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in Championship. The present numbers are 1500 against 1491, and the model turns that into 47.8% / 25.4% / 26.8%.
3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Neither component contradicts the other: Sheffield Utd leads 1.06-0.97 forward and 0.94-1.13 back. The tie closed out 1-0. The higher rating expects 60.5% of the points, the lower 39.5%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.8%. Raw profiles are 1.06 and 0.94 against 0.97 and 1.13. The rating gap itself is 9 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: 0 and -9. Most likely single result is Sheffield Utd on 47.8%. As a single number the model says 1-1. The home side is rated higher. Behind them are 59 and 59 rated matches. Expected goals come out at 1.77 to 1.22. Sheffield Utd holds a 21.0-point edge on the next outcome. The model gives 74.6% to someone winning. The three results cover 22.4 points.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Sheffield Utd's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 6 conceded. Derby County were their latest opponents, at home on 24 October: a 1-1 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Lincoln City on 10 October.
1-1 was Sheffield Utd's result against Derby County on 24 October (Championship), playing at home; Sheffield Utd drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 17 October fixture (Championship) paired Sheffield Utd with Bristol City. Sheffield Utd won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Portsmouth (Championship), Sheffield Utd finished 2-3 on 14 October. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 10 October: Sheffield Utd won 3-0 against Lincoln City at home in Championship, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Stoke in Championship, Sheffield Utd scored one and conceded two on 19 September; the away from home result was 1-2.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Sheffield Utd 12th after 12 matches and 16 points.
Wrexham: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; eight goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat away to Blackburn on 24 October; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Preston NE on 17 October.
Against Blackburn in Championship, Wrexham scored zero and conceded two on 24 October; the away from home result was 0-2. Wrexham's at home game on 17 October (Championship) ended 4-1 against Preston NE, with four goals for and one against. On 13 October, West Brom faced Wrexham in Championship: Wrexham lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. Championship, 10 October brought an away meeting with Derby County; Wrexham drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Wrexham hosted Southampton on 19 September (Championship) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
14 points in 12 matches put Wrexham 17th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 away win for Wrexham on 21 March and a 5-3 home win for Wrexham on 26 December 2025.
After the match
Sheffield Utd edged past Wrexham 1-0 on 30 October 2026. Ben Brereton opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Sheffield Utd to make it 1-0. Callum Doyle (27'), Liam Kitching (55') and Kalvin Phillips (67') were booked. two yellow cards went to Sheffield Utd. The substitution total for Sheffield Utd was five. The card tally for Wrexham was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Wrexham. Sheffield Utd kept their opponents scoreless.