9 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 10-17. The latest was 2019, 1-2 in FA Cup. The present numbers are 1338 against 1466, and the model turns that into 28.1% / 25.8% / 46.1%.
It ended 2-3. Outcomes span 20.3 points. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. A decisive result carries 74.2% against 25.8% for the draw. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -162 and -34. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Bristol City sits 18.0 points above the next most likely result. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Bolton has the better scoring rate (0.98) and Bristol City the better defensive one (0.96). Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.6%. In absolute terms: Bolton 0.98/1.49, Bristol City 0.85/0.96 on attack and defence. Goal expectation splits 1.40 to 1.72. Rating separation comes to 128 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 399 and 59 rated matches respectively. Top of the distribution: Bristol City, 46.1%. By expected share of the points: 41.0% and 59.0%.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Bolton: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; nine goals scored, 11 conceded. Middlesbrough were their latest opponents, at home on 23 October: a 5-1 defeat.
Bolton hosted Middlesbrough on 23 October (Championship) and lost 1-5; their goals totalled one, compared with five conceded. Southampton hosted Bolton (Championship) on 17 October. For Bolton, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 3-1 was Bolton's result against Wolverhampton on 13 October (Championship), playing away from home; Bolton won, with three scored to one conceded. The 10 October fixture (Championship) paired Bolton with Stoke. Bolton lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Norwich (Championship), Bolton finished 4-3 on 20 September. Their score comprised four goals, against three from the opposition.
14 points in 12 matches put Bolton 19th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
Bristol City: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; two goals scored, three conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 0-0 draw away to Stoke on 24 October.
Against Stoke in Championship, Bristol City scored zero and conceded zero on 24 October; the away from home result was 0-0. Bristol City's at home game on 17 October (Championship) ended 0-1 against Sheffield Utd, with zero goals for and one against. On 13 October, Blackburn faced Bristol City in Championship: Bristol City lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. Championship, 10 October brought an away meeting with Charlton; Bristol City drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Bristol City hosted Watford on 18 September (Championship) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded.
15 points in 12 matches put Bristol City 15th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Bristol City on 25 January 2019 and a 2-1 home win for Bristol City on 12 January 2019.
After the match
Bristol City edged past Bolton 3-2 on 31 October 2026. Dominic Ballard opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Bristol City, set up by Jason Knight, to make it 1-0. Josh Sheehan levelled it in the 16th minute for Bolton, set up by Thierry Gale, to make it 1-1. Sam Dalby put Bolton in front 57 minutes into the game, set up by Atsuki Ito, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Bristol City drew level through Sam Bell late on, in the 84th minute, set up by Cameron Pring, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Bristol City restored the lead through Scott Twine in the 93rd minute, set up by Jed Wallace, to make it 3-2. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. five changes were recorded for Bolton. five changes were recorded for Bristol City. Jed Wallace entered for Bristol City at 55 minutes and later provided an assist. After coming on for Bristol City in minute 67, Scott Twine scored in minute 93. Sam Bell scored in minute 84 following entry for Bristol City in the 78th minute. Across the goals, the lead switched two times. The winners, Bristol City, had been behind.