16 meetings sit in the record, first in 2018, aggregate 12-20. The latest was 2026, 1-3 in Championship. Against that, current ratings read 1461 and 1338, a 123-point margin, and the model splits the tie 64.0% / 21.4% / 14.6%.
Spread across the three results is 49.4 points. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -39 and -162. The home side is rated higher. Behind them are 59 and 59 rated matches. Its point estimate is 2-0. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 123 points. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Attack/defence pairs: 0.97/0.96 and 0.69/1.40. On expected goals the model has it 2.01 against 0.90. Someone wins 78.6% of the time by this model. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-0 on 11.0%. Both components point the same way, toward Stoke: 0.97 to 0.69 going forward, 0.96 to 1.40 going back. Stoke carries the largest share, 64.0%. Elo expected shares: 74.7% and 25.3%. A 42.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Played and finished 2-0.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Stoke's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 5 conceded. Latest: a 0-0 draw at home to Bristol City on 24 October.
Against Bristol City in Championship, Stoke scored zero and conceded zero on 24 October; the at home result was 0-0. Stoke's away from home game on 17 October (Championship) ended 1-0 against Derby County, with one goal for and zero against. On 13 October, Middlesbrough faced Stoke in Championship: Stoke lost 2-3 at home, having scored two and conceded three. Championship, 10 October brought an away meeting with Bolton; Stoke won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Stoke hosted Sheffield Utd on 19 September (Championship) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
20 points in 12 matches put Stoke 9th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
four goals for and 12 against accompanied Preston NE's two draws and three defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 24 October, Preston NE recorded a 1-1 draw hosting West Brom.
Preston NE's at home game on 24 October (Championship) ended 1-1 against West Brom, with one goal for and one against. On 17 October, Wrexham faced Preston NE in Championship: Preston NE lost 1-4 away from home, having scored one and conceded four. Championship, 13 October brought an away meeting with Birmingham; Preston NE lost 0-4, a return of zero goals scored and four conceded. Preston NE hosted Millwall on 10 October (Championship) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. QPR hosted Preston NE (Championship) on 19 September. For Preston NE, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed.
Preston NE stood 24th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with five points from 12 matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-1 home win for Preston NE on 20 March and a 0-0 draw at Stoke on 26 December 2025.
After the match
Stoke beat Preston NE 2-0 on 31 October 2026. Ben Wilmot opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Stoke, set up by Jack McGlynn, to make it 1-0. Jack McGlynn added to the tally 53 minutes into the game for Stoke, set up by Ethan Galbraith, to make it 2-0. Stoke: 64% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. The substitution total for Stoke was five. Preston NE: four substitutions. Stoke conceded no goals.