Prior record: 6-8-4 across 18 since 2010. Most recent 2021, 3-1 in Premier League. History aside, the live ratings of 1534 and 1526 drive a 47.5% / 25.5% / 27.0% distribution.
On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 8 points. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The four component numbers read 1.45, 1.07, 0.97, 0.79. Expected shares 60.4% against 39.6% on Elo. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.7%. Higher rating: the home side. West Ham has the better scoring rate (1.45) and West Brom the better defensive one (0.79). Most and least likely outcomes are 22.0 points apart. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Win-or-lose totals 74.5%; the draw takes the rest. Top of the distribution: West Ham, 47.5%. Versus the 1500 seed: +34 and +26. Expected goals 1.71-1.40. Behind them are 51 and 59 rated matches. The gap between first and second outcome is 20.5 points, West Ham ahead of West Brom. Result on the day: 1-3. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
12 goals for and six against accompanied West Ham's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. A 3-2 defeat at home to Southampton (24 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 6-0 away to Lincoln City on 14 October.
Championship, 24 October brought a home meeting with Southampton; West Ham lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded. West Ham visited Swansea on 17 October (Championship) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Lincoln City hosted West Ham (Championship) on 14 October. For West Ham, the score was 6-0: six goals scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was West Ham's result against QPR on 9 October (Championship), playing at home; West Ham drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Championship) paired West Ham with Millwall. West Ham drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two.
West Ham stood 6th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 22 points from 12 matches.
West Brom: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; six goals scored, six conceded. Preston NE were their latest opponents, away on 24 October: a 1-1 draw.
Playing away from home against Preston NE (Championship), West Brom finished 1-1 on 24 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 17 October: West Brom won 3-2 against Blackburn at home in Championship, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Wrexham in Championship, West Brom scored two and conceded one on 13 October; the away from home result was 2-1. West Brom's at home game on 10 October (Championship) ended 0-1 against Birmingham, with zero goals for and one against. On 20 September, Wolverhampton faced West Brom in Championship: West Brom lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed West Brom 8th after 12 matches and 21 points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 3-1 away win for West Ham on 19 May 2021 and a 2-1 home win for West Ham on 19 January 2021.
After the match
West Brom beat West Ham 3-1 on 31 October 2026. Felix Myhre opened the scoring in the 20th minute for West Brom, set up by Jimmy Morgan, to make it 1-0. Jarrod Bowen levelled it in the 29th minute for West Ham, set up by Mohamadou Kante, to make it 1-1. West Brom regained the lead through Jimmy Morgan 48 minutes into the game, set up by Felix Myhre, to make it 2-1. Callum Styles added to the tally 72 minutes into the game for West Brom to make it 3-1. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives West Brom only a 27% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. West Brom are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Championship. five changes were recorded for West Ham. West Brom made three changes.