This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1474 plays 1318, 156 points apart, splitting 68.0% / 20.3% / 11.8%.
Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.2%. 156 points of rating separation. Goal expectation splits 2.07 to 1.43. The match finished 4-1. The model's preferred outcome is Lincoln City at 68.0%. The higher rating expects 78.1% of the points, the lower 21.9%. They have met once on record — 2017, 1-0 in FA Cup, which is too little history to weigh. Win-or-lose totals 79.8%; the draw takes the rest. In absolute terms: Lincoln City 1.00/1.25, Burnley 0.85/1.39 on attack and defence. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -26 and -182. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Neither figure is thin: 54 and 51 matches respectively sit behind them. The leading outcome clears the second by 47.7 points. Point estimate: 2-1. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Lincoln City is ahead on each half — 1.00 to 0.85 in attack, 1.25 to 1.39 in defence. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 56.2-point range top to bottom.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Lincoln City's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 13 conceded. Latest: a 2-2 draw away to Millwall on 17 October.
Against Millwall in Championship, Lincoln City scored two and conceded two on 17 October; the away from home result was 2-2. Lincoln City's at home game on 14 October (Championship) ended 0-6 against West Ham, with zero goals for and six against. On 10 October, Sheffield Utd faced Lincoln City in Championship: Lincoln City lost 0-3 away from home, having scored zero and conceded three. Championship, 19 September brought a home meeting with Swansea; Lincoln City lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Lincoln City visited Bristol City on 15 September (Championship) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Lincoln City 19th after 11 matches and 12 points.
Burnley came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding eight. On 16 October, Burnley recorded a 2-1 defeat hosting Wolverhampton; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Watford on 10 October.
Burnley's at home game on 16 October (Championship) ended 1-2 against Wolverhampton, with one goal for and two against. On 13 October, Charlton faced Burnley in Championship: Burnley drew 2-2 at home, having scored two and conceded two. Championship, 10 October brought an away meeting with Watford; Burnley won 4-0, a return of four goals scored and zero conceded. Burnley hosted Derby County on 19 September (Championship) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Swansea hosted Burnley (Championship) on 12 September. For Burnley, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed.
Burnley stood 22nd in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with eight points from 11 matches.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 away win for Lincoln City on 18 February 2017.
After the match
Lincoln City comfortably beat Burnley 4-1 on 24 October 2026. Andreas Hountondji opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Burnley, set up by Lucas Pires, to make it 1-0. Ben House levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Lincoln City, set up by Andrei Coubis, to make it 1-1. Mikkel Ladefoged put Lincoln City in front 49 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Dom Jefferies added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Lincoln City to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Lincoln City extended the lead through Mikkel Ladefoged 67 minutes into the game, set up by Ben House, to make it 4-1. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Lincoln City 156 points stronger than Burnley. 68% is Lincoln City's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Lincoln City made five changes. The substitution total for Burnley was five. After coming on for Burnley in minute 13, Andreas Hountondji scored in minute 39. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. After trailing, Lincoln City secured the win.