Across 23 recorded meetings back to 2011 the split is 7-6-10 from QPR's side on wins, 24-32 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in Championship. The live ratings are 1497 and 1568, giving 35.2% / 27.8% / 37.0%.
The three outcomes sit within 9.2 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The four component numbers read 1.11, 1.12, 1.10, 0.89. The underlying goal expectation is 1.48 for QPR, 1.66 for Swansea. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The split is one apiece: QPR leads the attacking rate on 1.11, Swansea the defensive on 0.89. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.6% — not a strong call. A 71-point spread sits between the two figures. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Someone wins 72.2% of the time by this model. Only 1.8 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. The model's preferred outcome is Swansea at 37.0%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -3 and +68. The away side is rated higher. Expected shares 49.1% against 50.9% on Elo.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
QPR: one win, three draws and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, eight conceded. Birmingham were their latest opponents, away on 17 October: a 3-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Derby County on 14 October.
0-3 was QPR's result against Birmingham on 17 October (Championship), playing away from home; QPR lost, with zero scored to three conceded. The 14 October fixture (Championship) paired QPR with Derby County. QPR won 4-1 at home, netting four goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against West Ham (Championship), QPR finished 1-1 on 9 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 19 September: QPR drew 2-2 against Preston NE at home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against West Brom in Championship, QPR scored one and conceded one on 12 September; the away from home result was 1-1.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed QPR 10th after 11 matches and 17 points.
Swansea: four wins and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, four conceded. West Ham were their latest opponents, at home on 17 October: a 1-0 defeat.
On 17 October, West Ham faced Swansea in Championship: Swansea lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. Championship, 13 October brought an away meeting with Millwall; Swansea won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Swansea hosted Norwich on 10 October (Championship) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Lincoln City hosted Swansea (Championship) on 19 September. For Swansea, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 3-1 was Swansea's result against Burnley on 12 September (Championship), playing at home; Swansea won, with three scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Swansea 2nd after 11 matches and 23 points.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 away win for Swansea on 21 April and a 1-0 away win for QPR on 22 October 2025.
After the match
QPR overwhelmed Swansea 5-0 on 24 October 2026. Richard Kone opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for QPR, set up by Paul Smyth, to make it 1-0. Richard Kone added to the tally inside the first 10 minutes for QPR, set up by Kwame Poku, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, QPR extended the lead through Richard Kone from the penalty spot inside the first 15 minutes to make it 3-0. Jimmy Dunne scored the 4th goal for QPR 46 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Harvey Vale, to make it 4-0. QPR extended the lead late on, in the 86th minute; the match's 5th goal came through Jimmy Dunne, set up by Richard Kone, to make it 5-0. Our current Elo ratings make Swansea slightly the stronger side, by 71 rating points over QPR, even though it was QPR who won this one. On current ratings the model puts QPR at around 1.48 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. six changes were recorded for QPR. The substitution total for Swansea was five. QPR finished with a clean sheet.