On record: 10 meetings from 2017, 14-11 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-1 in Championship. Currently 1500 against 1417 — a 58.7% / 22.8% / 18.5% split.
Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Outcomes span 40.2 points. Higher rating: the home side. Played and finished 1-1. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Both components point the same way, toward Sheffield Utd: 1.06 to 0.83 going forward, 0.94 to 1.23 going back. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 70.1% to 29.9%. The gap between first and second outcome is 35.9 points, Sheffield Utd ahead of the draw. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.3%. The model's preferred outcome is Sheffield Utd at 58.7%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read 0 and -83. The xG line reads 1.93 to 1.05. 83 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Attack/defence pairs: 1.06/0.94 and 0.83/1.23. The model gives 77.2% to someone winning. Behind them are 59 and 59 rated matches. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Sheffield Utd: two wins and three defeats over five games; seven goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 1-0 win away to Bristol City on 17 October; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Lincoln City on 10 October.
On 17 October, Bristol City faced Sheffield Utd in Championship: Sheffield Utd won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Championship, 14 October brought an away meeting with Portsmouth; Sheffield Utd lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded. Sheffield Utd hosted Lincoln City on 10 October (Championship) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. Stoke hosted Sheffield Utd (Championship) on 19 September. For Sheffield Utd, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 0-1 was Sheffield Utd's result against Wolverhampton on 13 September (Championship), playing at home; Sheffield Utd lost, with zero scored to one conceded.
15 points in 11 matches put Sheffield Utd 11th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
Derby County arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording two draws and three defeats, scoring four goals and conceding nine. On 17 October, Derby County recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Stoke.
Championship, 17 October brought a home meeting with Stoke; Derby County lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Derby County visited QPR on 14 October (Championship) and lost 1-4; their goals totalled one, compared with four conceded. Wrexham travelled to face Derby County (Championship) on 10 October. For Derby County, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Derby County's result against Burnley on 19 September (Championship), playing away from home; Derby County drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 12 September fixture (Championship) paired Derby County with Birmingham. Derby County lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two.
Derby County stood 23rd in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with six points from 11 matches.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 away win for Sheffield Utd on 2 May and a 3-1 away win for Derby County on 1 November 2025.
After the match
Sheffield Utd and Derby County drew 1-1 on 24 October 2026. Bobby Clark opened the scoring in the 37th minute for Derby County to make it 1-0. Patrick Bamford levelled it 79 minutes into the game for Sheffield Utd, set up by Romelle Donovan, to make it 1-1. Dion Sanderson (66') was sent off. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Sheffield Utd are 83 points stronger than Derby County. Sheffield Utd: five substitutions. Romelle Donovan, on in the 67th minute, provided an assist. Derby County: one red card. five changes were recorded for Derby County.