On record: 12 meetings from 2012, 7-23 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2019, 0-2 in Championship. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1349 and 1600 — 251 points — for a 14.8% / 21.5% / 63.7% split.
It ended 1-5. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -151 and +100. The gap between first and second outcome is 42.2 points, Middlesbrough ahead of the draw. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 25.5% to 74.5%. Someone wins 78.5% of the time by this model. Scorelines above 8%: 1. In absolute terms: Bolton 0.95/1.45, Middlesbrough 1.42/0.94 on attack and defence. Middlesbrough is ahead on each half — 1.42 to 0.95 in attack, 0.94 to 1.45 in defence. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Most and least likely outcomes are 48.9 points apart. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. Top of the distribution: Middlesbrough, 63.7%. Ratings sit 251 apart. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.32 and 2.78. Neither figure is thin: 398 and 61 matches respectively sit behind them. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 8.4%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Bolton came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding six. A 0-0 draw away to Southampton (17 October) was their most recent result.
The 17 October fixture (Championship) paired Bolton with Southampton. Bolton drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Wolverhampton (Championship), Bolton finished 3-1 on 13 October. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 10 October: Bolton lost 1-2 against Stoke at home in Championship, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Norwich in Championship, Bolton scored four and conceded three on 20 September; the away from home result was 4-3. Bolton's at home game on 12 September (Championship) ended 1-0 against Cardiff, with one goal for and zero against.
Bolton: 15th, 14 points, 11 matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
ten goals for and eight against accompanied Middlesbrough's two wins and three draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 2-2 draw at home to Cardiff (17 October) was their most recent result.
Cardiff travelled to face Middlesbrough (Championship) on 17 October. For Middlesbrough, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 3-2 was Middlesbrough's result against Stoke on 13 October (Championship), playing away from home; Middlesbrough won, with three scored to two conceded. The 10 October fixture (Championship) paired Middlesbrough with Wolverhampton. Middlesbrough won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Birmingham (Championship), Middlesbrough finished 2-2 on 19 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 15 September: Middlesbrough drew 2-2 against Millwall at home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing two.
Middlesbrough stood 3rd in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 22 points from 11 matches.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 away win for Middlesbrough on 9 April 2019 and a 2-0 home win for Middlesbrough on 19 September 2018.
After the match
Middlesbrough overwhelmed Bolton 5-1 on 23 October 2026. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Middlesbrough 251 points stronger than Bolton. Middlesbrough won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 63.7%. On current ratings the model puts Middlesbrough at around 2.78 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Championship. Bolton: five substitutions. Middlesbrough made five changes.