2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 3-2. The latest was 2025, 2-1 in Championship. The present numbers are 1520 against 1346, and the model turns that into 70.0% / 19.6% / 10.3%.
Spread across the three results is 59.7 points. The xG line reads 2.34 to 1.13. Both figures rest on decent samples, 57 and 57 matches. Distance between the ratings: 174 points, wide on this scale. Wrexham sits 50.4 points above the next most likely result. Result on the day: 4-1. Elo expected shares: 79.8% and 20.2%. Win-or-lose totals 80.3%; the draw takes the rest. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.6%. Both components point the same way, toward Wrexham: 1.09 to 0.74 going forward, 1.13 to 1.44 going back. The model's preferred outcome is Wrexham at 70.0%. The home side is rated higher. Raw profiles are 1.09 and 1.13 against 0.74 and 1.44. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-1. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +20 and -154. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Wrexham came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding 11. On 13 October, Wrexham recorded a 2-1 defeat hosting West Brom.
West Brom travelled to face Wrexham (Championship) on 13 October. For Wrexham, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Wrexham's result against Derby County on 10 October (Championship), playing away from home; Wrexham drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Championship) paired Wrexham with Southampton. Wrexham won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against West Ham (Championship), Wrexham finished 0-6 on 11 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against six from the opposition. 8 September: Wrexham drew 1-1 against Burnley at home in Championship, scoring one goal and allowing one.
Wrexham: 19th, 11 points, ten matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
three goals for and ten against accompanied Preston NE's one draw and four defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games, a winless run. On 13 October, Preston NE recorded a 4-0 defeat visiting Birmingham.
Birmingham hosted Preston NE (Championship) on 13 October. For Preston NE, the score was 0-4: zero goals scored, four allowed. 0-1 was Preston NE's result against Millwall on 10 October (Championship), playing at home; Preston NE lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Championship) paired Preston NE with QPR. Preston NE drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Lincoln City (Championship), Preston NE finished 0-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 8 September: Preston NE lost 1-2 against Watford away from home in Championship, scoring one goal and allowing two.
Preston NE stood 24th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with four points from ten matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 home win for Wrexham on 29 December 2025 and a 1-1 draw at Preston NE on 6 December 2025.
After the match
Wrexham comfortably beat Preston NE 4-1 on 17 October 2026. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Wrexham 174 points stronger than Preston NE. Wrexham: 70% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour.