Prior record: 6-6-6 across 18 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 0-0 in Championship. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1503 and 1479 — 24 points — for a 50.2% / 24.9% / 25.0% split.
Expected goals 1.29-1.00. Between best and worst outcome there is 25.3 points of daylight. The tie closed out 3-2. Attack/defence pairs: 0.90/0.80 and 0.92/0.97. By expected share of the points: 62.5% and 37.5%. A decisive result carries 75.2% against 24.9% for the draw. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 57 and 57 matches. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +3 and -21. One half each — Blackburn in front on 0.92, West Brom behind on 0.80. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Rating separation comes to 24 points. The home side is rated higher. The gap between first and second outcome is 25.2 points, West Brom ahead of Blackburn. 1-0 leads the scorelines at 13.1% — not a strong call. Most likely single result is West Brom on 50.2%. Reduced to one result that is 1-0.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
four goals for and four against accompanied West Brom's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 13 October, West Brom recorded a 2-1 win visiting Wrexham.
13 October: West Brom won 2-1 against Wrexham away from home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Birmingham in Championship, West Brom scored zero and conceded one on 10 October; the at home result was 0-1. West Brom's away from home game on 20 September (Championship) ended 0-1 against Wolverhampton, with zero goals for and one against. On 12 September, QPR faced West Brom in Championship: West Brom drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. Championship, 9 September brought an away meeting with Derby County; West Brom won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
West Brom: 8th, 17 points, ten matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
Blackburn's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 6 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 win away to Bristol City on 13 October.
On 13 October, Bristol City faced Blackburn in Championship: Blackburn won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Championship, 10 October brought a home meeting with Cardiff; Blackburn won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Blackburn visited Portsmouth on 19 September (Championship) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Millwall travelled to face Blackburn (Championship) on 12 September. For Blackburn, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 1-2 was Blackburn's result against Sheffield Utd on 8 September (Championship), playing at home; Blackburn lost, with one scored to two conceded.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Blackburn 10th after ten matches and 15 points.
Earlier results between these sides included a 0-0 draw at Blackburn on 6 April and a 1-0 home win for West Brom on 9 August 2025.
After the match
West Brom edged past Blackburn 3-2 on 17 October 2026.