Prior record: 3-3-6 across 12 since 2012. Most recent 2018, 4-1 in Premier League. History aside, the live ratings of 1581 and 1572 drive a 47.8% / 25.4% / 26.8% distribution.
Scorelines above 8%: 3. The leading outcome clears the second by 21.0 points. The four component numbers read 1.04, 0.78, 1.50, 0.92. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.2% leads, but only just. Spread across the three results is 22.4 points. 74.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +81 and +72. Played and finished 0-1. Its point estimate is 1-1. The ratings draw on 57 and 49 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Distance between the ratings: 9 points, narrow on this scale. One half each — West Ham in front on 1.50, Swansea behind on 0.78. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. 47.8% goes to Swansea, the model's lean. Expected goals 1.42-1.57. The higher rating expects 60.5% of the points, the lower 39.5%.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Swansea's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 6 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 win away to Millwall on 13 October.
On 13 October, Millwall faced Swansea in Championship: Swansea won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Championship, 10 October brought a home meeting with Norwich; Swansea won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Swansea visited Lincoln City on 19 September (Championship) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Burnley travelled to face Swansea (Championship) on 12 September. For Swansea, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 1-3 was Swansea's result against Southampton on 8 September (Championship), playing away from home; Swansea lost, with one scored to three conceded.
23 points in ten matches put Swansea 1st in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
18 goals for and five against accompanied West Ham's three wins and two draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 6-0 win away to Lincoln City (14 October) was their most recent result.
14 October: West Ham won 6-0 against Lincoln City away from home in Championship, scoring six goals and allowing zero. Against QPR in Championship, West Ham scored one and conceded one on 9 October; the at home result was 1-1. West Ham's away from home game on 19 September (Championship) ended 2-2 against Millwall, with two goals for and two against. On 11 September, Wrexham faced West Ham in Championship: West Ham won 6-0 at home, having scored six and conceded zero. Championship, 8 September brought an away meeting with Bolton; West Ham won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded.
West Ham stood 4th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 19 points from ten matches.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 4-1 home win for Swansea on 3 March 2018 and a 1-0 home win for West Ham on 30 September 2017.
After the match
West Ham edged past Swansea 1-0 on 17 October 2026. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives West Ham only a 26.8% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. West Ham are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Championship.