On record: 13 meetings from 2012, 15-14 on aggregate, 4 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-0 in Championship. Currently 1425 against 1453 — a 41.9% / 26.7% / 31.4% split.
It ended 0-1. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Scorelines above 8%: 3. There is no trade-off to weigh: Stoke scores at the higher rate (0.99 to 0.84) and concedes at the lower (1.09 to 1.14). Win-or-lose totals 73.3%; the draw takes the rest. Derby County holds a 10.5-point edge on the next outcome. The distribution runs from 41.9% down to 26.7%. A 28-point difference on the rating scale. Elo expected shares: 55.3% and 44.7%. Higher rating: the away side. In absolute terms: Derby County 0.84/1.14, Stoke 0.99/1.09 on attack and defence. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Derby County carries the largest share, 41.9%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.5% leads, but only just. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 57 and 57 matches. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -75 and -47. The xG line reads 1.37 to 1.53.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
four goals for and nine against accompanied Derby County's two draws and three defeats across five outings, a winless run. A 4-1 defeat away to QPR (14 October) was their most recent result.
QPR hosted Derby County (Championship) on 14 October. For Derby County, the score was 1-4: one goal scored, four allowed. 1-1 was Derby County's result against Wrexham on 10 October (Championship), playing at home; Derby County drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Championship) paired Derby County with Burnley. Derby County drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Birmingham (Championship), Derby County finished 1-2 on 12 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 9 September: Derby County lost 0-1 against West Brom at home in Championship, scoring zero goals and allowing one.
Derby County: 23rd, six points, ten matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
Stoke came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding seven. A 3-2 defeat at home to Middlesbrough (13 October) was their most recent result.
Middlesbrough travelled to face Stoke (Championship) on 13 October. For Stoke, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 2-1 was Stoke's result against Bolton on 10 October (Championship), playing away from home; Stoke won, with two scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Championship) paired Stoke with Sheffield Utd. Stoke won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Watford (Championship), Stoke finished 2-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 8 September: Stoke drew 1-1 against Cardiff away from home in Championship, scoring one goal and allowing one.
Stoke stood 9th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 16 points from ten matches.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-0 home win for Derby County on 6 April and a 3-1 home win for Stoke on 9 August 2025.
After the match
Stoke edged past Derby County 1-0 on 17 October 2026.