15 meetings sit in the record, first in 2017, aggregate 16-22. The latest was 2026, 1-0 in Championship. The live ratings are 1452 and 1493, giving 39.8% / 27.2% / 33.0%.
Scorelines above 8%: 4. Each side owns one half of the argument — Sheffield Utd the scoring rate at 1.10, Bristol City the conceding rate at 0.99. A 41-point difference on the rating scale. Final score: 0-1. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 53.4% to 46.6%. Expected goals sit at 1.22 against 1.47. Someone wins 72.8% of the time by this model. Bristol City carries the largest share, 39.8%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.81/0.99 and 1.10/1.01. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Outcomes span 12.6 points. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.2%. The gap between first and second outcome is 6.8 points, Bristol City ahead of Sheffield Utd. With 57 and 57 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -48 and -7.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Bristol City came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring three goals and conceding seven. On 13 October, Bristol City recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Blackburn.
Championship, 13 October brought a home meeting with Blackburn; Bristol City lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Bristol City visited Charlton on 10 October (Championship) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Watford travelled to face Bristol City (Championship) on 18 September. For Bristol City, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 0-1 was Bristol City's result against Lincoln City on 15 September (Championship), playing at home; Bristol City lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 12 September fixture (Championship) paired Bristol City with Southampton. Bristol City lost 1-4 away from home, netting one goal while conceding four.
Bristol City: 12th, 14 points, ten matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
eight goals for and seven against accompanied Sheffield Utd's two wins and three defeats across five outings. A 3-2 defeat away to Portsmouth (14 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Lincoln City on 10 October.
Sheffield Utd's away from home game on 14 October (Championship) ended 2-3 against Portsmouth, with two goals for and three against. On 10 October, Lincoln City faced Sheffield Utd in Championship: Sheffield Utd won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. Championship, 19 September brought an away meeting with Stoke; Sheffield Utd lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Sheffield Utd hosted Wolverhampton on 13 September (Championship) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Blackburn hosted Sheffield Utd (Championship) on 8 September. For Sheffield Utd, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed.
Sheffield Utd stood 15th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 12 points from ten matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-0 home win for Bristol City on 6 April and a 4-1 away win for Bristol City on 9 August 2025.
After the match
Sheffield Utd edged past Bristol City 1-0 on 17 October 2026. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Sheffield Utd are 41 points stronger than Bristol City.