The head-to-head counts 16 recorded meetings since 2012: 7 to Burnley, 2 to Wolverhampton, 7 drawn, 21-11 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-1 in Premier League. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1323 and 1399 — 76 points — for a 34.6% / 27.6% / 37.7% split.
All three results are bunched inside 10.1 points. The tie closed out 1-2. Neither figure is thin: 49 and 48 matches respectively sit behind them. The model gives 72.3% to someone winning. xG: 1.57 to 1.67. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -177 and -101. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.2%. In absolute terms: Burnley 0.91/1.38, Wolverhampton 0.90/1.16 on attack and defence. One edge each: scoring to Burnley (0.91 v 0.90), conceding to Wolverhampton (1.16 v 1.38). Its rounded call is 1-1. Most likely single result is Wolverhampton on 37.7%. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The away side is rated higher. Only 3.1 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Ratings sit 76 apart. Expected shares 48.4% against 51.6% on Elo.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Burnley: one win, three draws and one defeat over five games; nine goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 2-2 draw at home to Charlton on 13 October; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Watford on 10 October.
2-2 was Burnley's result against Charlton on 13 October (Championship), playing at home; Burnley drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 10 October fixture (Championship) paired Burnley with Watford. Burnley won 4-0 away from home, netting four goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Derby County (Championship), Burnley finished 1-1 on 19 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 12 September: Burnley lost 1-3 against Swansea away from home in Championship, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against Wrexham in Championship, Burnley scored one and conceded one on 8 September; the away from home result was 1-1.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Burnley 21st after ten matches and eight points.
Wolverhampton's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 6 conceded. Latest: a 3-1 defeat at home to Bolton on 13 October.
On 13 October, Bolton faced Wolverhampton in Championship: Wolverhampton lost 1-3 at home, having scored one and conceded three. Championship, 10 October brought an away meeting with Middlesbrough; Wolverhampton lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Wolverhampton hosted West Brom on 20 September (Championship) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Sheffield Utd hosted Wolverhampton (Championship) on 13 September. For Wolverhampton, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 2-2 was Wolverhampton's result against Birmingham on 6 September (Championship), playing away from home; Wolverhampton drew, with two scored to two conceded.
14 points in nine matches put Wolverhampton 10th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at Burnley on 24 May and a 3-2 away win for Burnley on 26 October 2025.
After the match
Wolverhampton edged past Burnley 2-1 on 16 October 2026. Jamie Vardy opened the scoring in the 20th minute for Burnley, set up by Jacob Bruun Larsen, to make it 1-0. Fernando López levelled it in the 39th minute for Wolverhampton, set up by Sean Neave, to make it 1-1. Tawanda Chirewa put Wolverhampton in front 72 minutes into the game, set up by Mateus Mané, to make it 2-1. Reo Hatate (63'), Sean Neave (70') and Kyle Walker (90') were booked. Burnley: two yellow cards. Burnley made four changes. one yellow card went to Wolverhampton. The substitution total for Wolverhampton was six. Mateus Mané, on in the 61st minute, provided an assist. Tawanda Chirewa entered for Wolverhampton at 72 minutes and later scored in minute 72. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. Wolverhampton turned a deficit into victory.