On file: 5 previous meetings dating to 2019, 6-8 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-1 in Championship. Currently 1485 against 1495 — a 44.7% / 26.1% / 29.2% split.
Final score: 0-1. A 10-point spread sits between the two figures. The higher-rated side expects 42.2% of the points; the other side 57.8%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Neither figure is thin: 57 and 56 matches respectively sit behind them. Each side owns one half of the argument — Norwich the scoring rate at 1.10, Portsmouth the conceding rate at 1.00. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. A 15.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Raw profiles are 1.10 and 1.11 against 0.94 and 1.00. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 11.0%. Its rounded call is 1-1. The model gives 73.9% to someone winning. Outcomes span 18.6 points. Most likely single result is Norwich on 44.7%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.64 for Norwich, 1.40 for Portsmouth. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -15 and -5.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
nine goals for and 12 against accompanied Norwich's one win and four defeats across five outings. On 14 October, Norwich recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Southampton.
Southampton travelled to face Norwich (Championship) on 14 October. For Norwich, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-2 was Norwich's result against Swansea on 10 October (Championship), playing away from home; Norwich lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 20 September fixture (Championship) paired Norwich with Bolton. Norwich lost 3-4 at home, netting three goals while conceding four. Playing away from home against Middlesbrough (Championship), Norwich finished 3-4 on 12 September. Their score comprised three goals, against four from the opposition. 9 September: Norwich won 2-1 against Birmingham at home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing one.
Norwich stood 21st in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with nine points from ten matches.
Portsmouth came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding five. On 14 October, Portsmouth recorded a 3-2 win hosting Sheffield Utd.
14 October: Portsmouth won 3-2 against Sheffield Utd at home in Championship, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Southampton in Championship, Portsmouth scored zero and conceded one on 11 October; the away from home result was 0-1. Portsmouth's at home game on 19 September (Championship) ended 2-2 against Blackburn, with two goals for and two against. On 12 September, Charlton faced Portsmouth in Championship: Portsmouth drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Championship, 5 September brought a home meeting with Cardiff; Portsmouth won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded.
Portsmouth: 18th, 11 points, nine matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-1 draw at Norwich on 3 April and a 2-1 away win for Norwich on 16 August 2025.
After the match
Portsmouth edged past Norwich 1-0 on 17 October 2026. Marko Milovanovic opened the scoring from the penalty spot 51 minutes into the game for Portsmouth to make it 1-0. Marko Milovanovic (55'), Ryan Kavuma-McQueen (64'), Oscar Schwartau (66') and Mathias Kvistgaarden (90') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Portsmouth only a 29.2% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Norwich's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Championship. two yellow cards went to Norwich. The substitution total for Norwich was four. Mathias Kvistgaarden, on in the 74th minute, was booked. Portsmouth: two yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Portsmouth. Portsmouth finished with a clean sheet.