Prior record: 0-1-3 across 4 since 2024. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in Championship. Against that, current ratings read 1479 and 1478, a 1-point margin, and the model splits the tie 46.5% / 25.7% / 27.8%.
The four component numbers read 0.95, 1.07, 1.12, 1.07. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 55 and 56 rated matches respectively. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Portsmouth sits 18.7 points above the next most likely result. Between best and worst outcome there is 20.8 points of daylight. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.7%. The model gives 74.3% to someone winning. On the Elo curve they expect 59.4% and 40.6% of the points. The model's preferred outcome is Portsmouth at 46.5%. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 1 points. Neither side holds both halves — Sheffield Utd scores at 1.12, Portsmouth concedes at 1.07. The xG line reads 1.51 to 1.61. The tie closed out 3-2. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -21 and -22. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Point estimate: 1-1. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Portsmouth's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 5 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Southampton were their latest opponents, away on 11 October: a 1-0 defeat.
Portsmouth visited Southampton on 11 October (Championship) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Blackburn travelled to face Portsmouth (Championship) on 19 September. For Portsmouth, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 0-0 was Portsmouth's result against Charlton on 12 September (Championship), playing away from home; Portsmouth drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 5 September fixture (Championship) paired Portsmouth with Cardiff. Portsmouth won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Derby County (Championship), Portsmouth finished 0-2 on 1 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Portsmouth 20th after eight matches and eight points.
Sheffield Utd: two wins and three defeats over five games; seven goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 3-0 win at home to Lincoln City on 10 October.
On 10 October, Lincoln City faced Sheffield Utd in Championship: Sheffield Utd won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. Championship, 19 September brought an away meeting with Stoke; Sheffield Utd lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Sheffield Utd hosted Wolverhampton on 13 September (Championship) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Blackburn hosted Sheffield Utd (Championship) on 8 September. For Sheffield Utd, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-3 was Sheffield Utd's result against Norwich on 5 September (Championship), playing at home; Sheffield Utd lost, with one scored to three conceded.
12 points in nine matches put Sheffield Utd 15th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 away win for Sheffield Utd on 14 February and a 3-0 home win for Sheffield Utd on 26 November 2025.
After the match
Portsmouth edged past Sheffield Utd 3-2 on 14 October 2026. Zak Swanson opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Portsmouth to make it 1-0. Adrian Segecic added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Portsmouth, set up by Ryan Kavuma-McQueen, to make it 2-0. Japhet Tanganga pulled one back 59 minutes into the game for Sheffield Utd, set up by Tahith Chong, to make it 1-2. Thomas Cannon levelled it 67 minutes into the game for Sheffield Utd, set up by Kalvin Phillips, to make it 2-2. Portsmouth regained the lead through Ebou Adams late on, in the 89th minute, set up by Adrian Segecic, to make it 3-2. Hamza Choudhury (44') was sent off. Jayden Meghoma (27'), Hamza Choudhury (35'), Nicolas Schmid (60'), Sam McCallum (60') and Ebou Adams (82') were booked. Portsmouth won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 4 meetings without a win. three yellow cards went to Portsmouth. Portsmouth: five substitutions. After coming on for Portsmouth in minute 68, Ebou Adams scored in minute 89 and was booked. Sheffield Utd picked up two yellow cards and one red card. Sheffield Utd: five substitutions. Kalvin Phillips entered for Sheffield Utd at 46 minutes and later provided an assist.