20 meetings sit in the record, first in 2015, aggregate 21-23. The latest was 2026, 2-1 in Championship. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1545 and 1356 — 189 points — for a 71.7% / 19.1% / 9.2% split.
First to second is a 52.6-point step, Birmingham over the draw. Someone wins 80.9% of the time by this model. Distance between the ratings: 189 points, wide on this scale. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +45 and -144. The four component numbers read 1.09, 0.82, 0.74, 1.34. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Both figures rest on decent samples, 56 and 56 matches. 71.7% goes to Birmingham, the model's lean. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Flat distribution — 2-0 tops it at just 11.8%. The xG line reads 2.17 to 0.82. Birmingham's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 81.2%. Neither component contradicts the other: Birmingham leads 1.09-0.74 forward and 0.82-1.34 back. The match finished 4-0. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Point estimate: 2-0. Spread across the three results is 62.5 points.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Birmingham: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 1-0 win away to West Brom on 10 October.
1-0 was Birmingham's result against West Brom on 10 October (Championship), playing away from home; Birmingham won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 19 September fixture (Championship) paired Birmingham with Middlesbrough. Birmingham drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Derby County (Championship), Birmingham finished 2-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 9 September: Birmingham lost 1-2 against Norwich away from home in Championship, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Wolverhampton in Championship, Birmingham scored two and conceded two on 6 September; the at home result was 2-2.
14 points in nine matches put Birmingham 10th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
Preston NE: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; five goals scored, seven conceded. Millwall were their latest opponents, at home on 10 October: a 1-0 defeat.
Against Millwall in Championship, Preston NE scored zero and conceded one on 10 October; the at home result was 0-1. Preston NE's away from home game on 19 September (Championship) ended 2-2 against QPR, with two goals for and two against. On 12 September, Lincoln City faced Preston NE in Championship: Preston NE lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. Championship, 8 September brought an away meeting with Watford; Preston NE lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Preston NE hosted Blackburn on 5 September (Championship) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded.
four points in nine matches put Preston NE 24th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Birmingham on 22 April and a 1-0 away win for Birmingham on 21 October 2025.
After the match
Birmingham overwhelmed Preston NE 4-0 on 13 October 2026. Liam Millar opened the scoring in the 34th minute for Birmingham, set up by Patrick Roberts, to make it 1-0. August Priske added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for Birmingham, set up by Alex Cochrane, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Birmingham extended the lead through August Priske 50 minutes into the game, set up by Jay Stansfield, to make it 3-0. Demarai Gray scored the 4th goal for Birmingham 76 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Max Bird, to make it 4-0. Stanley Mills (56') was sent off. Stanley Mills (47') and Liam Millar (50') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Birmingham 189 points stronger than Preston NE. Birmingham's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 71.7% for a win in this pairing. Birmingham are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Championship. Birmingham: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Birmingham. Demarai Gray entered for Birmingham at 61 minutes and later scored in minute 76. After coming on for Birmingham in minute 61, Max Bird provided an assist. The card tally for Preston NE was one yellow card and one red card. Preston NE made three changes. A clean sheet for Birmingham.