On file: 23 previous meetings dating to 2012, 30-32 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-1 in Championship. Against that, current ratings read 1467 and 1489, a 22-point margin, and the model splits the tie 42.9% / 26.5% / 30.6%.
The xG line reads 1.15 to 1.20. By expected share of the points: 56.2% and 43.8%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A decisive result carries 73.5% against 26.5% for the draw. Behind them are 56 and 56 rated matches. There is no trade-off to weigh: Blackburn scores at the higher rate (0.89 to 0.87) and concedes at the lower (0.89 to 1.01). As a single number the model says 1-1. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -33 and -11. It ended 0-1. In absolute terms: Bristol City 0.87/1.01, Blackburn 0.89/0.89 on attack and defence. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 13.2%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Ratings sit 22 apart. Outcomes span 16.4 points. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Bristol City sits 12.3 points above the next most likely result.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Bristol City came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding seven. On 10 October, Bristol City recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Charlton.
The 10 October fixture (Championship) paired Bristol City with Charlton. Bristol City drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Watford (Championship), Bristol City finished 1-0 on 18 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 15 September: Bristol City lost 0-1 against Lincoln City at home in Championship, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Southampton in Championship, Bristol City scored one and conceded four on 12 September; the away from home result was 1-4. Bristol City's away from home game on 5 September (Championship) ended 2-1 against Burnley, with two goals for and one against.
Bristol City: 11th, 14 points, nine matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
nine goals for and eight against accompanied Blackburn's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 10 October, Blackburn recorded a 2-1 win hosting Cardiff.
10 October: Blackburn won 2-1 against Cardiff at home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Portsmouth in Championship, Blackburn scored two and conceded two on 19 September; the away from home result was 2-2. Blackburn's at home game on 12 September (Championship) ended 3-1 against Millwall, with three goals for and one against. On 8 September, Sheffield Utd faced Blackburn in Championship: Blackburn lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. Championship, 5 September brought an away meeting with Preston NE; Blackburn lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded.
Blackburn stood 13th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 12 points from nine matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 away win for Bristol City on 24 February and a 1-0 away win for Blackburn on 4 November 2025.
After the match
Blackburn edged past Bristol City 1-0 on 13 October 2026. Oladapo Afolayan opened the scoring in the 38th minute for Blackburn to make it 1-0. Blackburn are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Championship. The substitution total for Bristol City was five. Blackburn: four substitutions. Blackburn kept their opponents scoreless.