On record: 16 meetings from 2011, 21-23 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2025, 1-1 in Championship. Against that, current ratings read 1407 and 1348, a 59-point margin, and the model splits the tie 55.2% / 23.7% / 21.1%.
76.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. On expected goals the model has it 2.04 against 0.96. The distribution runs from 55.2% down to 21.1%. A 31.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The rating gap itself is 59 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The four component numbers read 0.97, 1.12, 0.63, 1.41. Result on the day: 5-1. Cardiff is ahead on each half — 0.97 to 0.63 in attack, 1.12 to 1.41 in defence. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The higher-rated side expects 67.1% of the points; the other side 32.9%. The single-scoreline output is 2-0. The home side is rated higher. The model's preferred outcome is Cardiff at 55.2%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 668 and 56 rated matches respectively. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -93 and -152.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Cardiff: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; five goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 2-1 defeat away to Blackburn on 10 October.
Against Blackburn in Championship, Cardiff scored one and conceded two on 10 October; the away from home result was 1-2. Cardiff's at home game on 19 September (Championship) ended 3-1 against Charlton, with three goals for and one against. On 12 September, Bolton faced Cardiff in Championship: Cardiff lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. Championship, 8 September brought a home meeting with Stoke; Cardiff drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Cardiff visited Portsmouth on 5 September (Championship) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Cardiff 21st after nine matches and seven points.
Watford: one win and four defeats over five games; three goals scored, nine conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 4-0 defeat at home to Burnley on 10 October.
On 10 October, Burnley faced Watford in Championship: Watford lost 0-4 at home, having scored zero and conceded four. Championship, 18 September brought an away meeting with Bristol City; Watford lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Watford hosted Stoke on 12 September (Championship) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Preston NE travelled to face Watford (Championship) on 8 September. For Watford, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 0-1 was Watford's result against West Brom on 5 September (Championship), playing away from home; Watford lost, with zero scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Watford 20th after nine matches and eight points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at Cardiff on 14 January 2025 and a 2-1 away win for Cardiff on 29 December 2024.
After the match
Cardiff overwhelmed Watford 5-1 on 13 October 2026. Jack Moylan opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 11 minutes for Cardiff to make it 1-0. Jack Moylan added to the tally in the 35th minute for Cardiff, set up by Cian Ashford, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Cardiff extended the lead through Matthew Pollock (an own goal) in the 41st minute to make it 3-0. Ollie Tanner scored the 4th goal for Cardiff 50 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Perry Ng, to make it 4-0. Cardiff extended the lead late on, in the 85th minute; the match's 5th goal came through Callum Robinson to make it 5-0. Hector Matthew Kyprianou got one back late on, in the 87th minute for Watford, set up by Iker Bravo, to make it 1-5. Martín Payero (9'), Edo Kayembe (74'), Amin Nabizada (86'), Perry Ng (86') and Hector Matthew Kyprianou (90') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Cardiff won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 55.2%. On current ratings the model puts Cardiff at around 2.04 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Watford's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Championship. Cardiff: one yellow card. Cardiff made five changes. Callum Robinson scored in minute 85 following entry for Cardiff in the 82nd minute. Watford: four yellow cards. Watford made five changes. Amin Nabizada, on in the 56th minute, was booked. Iker Bravo entered for Watford at 67 minutes and later provided an assist.