The head-to-head counts 16 recorded meetings since 2018: 6 to Millwall, 6 to Swansea, 4 drawn, 14-18 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-1 in Championship. The present numbers are 1547 against 1598, and the model turns that into 38.3% / 27.5% / 34.2%.
A 4.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The underlying goal expectation is 1.23 for Millwall, 1.36 for Swansea. A 51-point spread sits between the two figures. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The tie closed out 0-1. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +47 and +98. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.6%. Raw profiles are 1.06 and 0.91 against 1.11 and 0.78. By expected share of the points: 52.0% and 48.0%. Behind them are 58 and 56 rated matches. Win-or-lose totals 72.5%; the draw takes the rest. Swansea holds both halves of the profile — 1.11 against 1.06 for scoring, 0.78 against 0.91 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Top to bottom the spread is only 10.8 points.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Millwall came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding seven. On 10 October, Millwall recorded a 1-0 win visiting Preston NE; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Bolton on 5 September.
The 10 October fixture (Championship) paired Millwall with Preston NE. Millwall won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against West Ham (Championship), Millwall finished 2-2 on 19 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 15 September: Millwall drew 2-2 against Middlesbrough away from home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Blackburn in Championship, Millwall scored one and conceded three on 12 September; the away from home result was 1-3. Millwall's at home game on 5 September (Championship) ended 4-0 against Bolton, with four goals for and zero against.
Millwall stood 9th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 14 points from nine matches.
eight goals for and six against accompanied Swansea's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 10 October, Swansea recorded a 2-1 win hosting Norwich.
10 October: Swansea won 2-1 against Norwich at home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Lincoln City in Championship, Swansea scored two and conceded one on 19 September; the away from home result was 2-1. Swansea's at home game on 12 September (Championship) ended 3-1 against Burnley, with three goals for and one against. On 8 September, Southampton faced Swansea in Championship: Swansea lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. Championship, 5 September brought a home meeting with Wrexham; Swansea drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded.
Swansea: 1st, 20 points, nine matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Millwall on 4 January and a 1-1 draw at Swansea on 27 September 2025.
After the match
Swansea edged past Millwall 1-0 on 13 October 2026. Ronald opened the scoring late on, in the 90th minute for Swansea, set up by Joseph Opoku, to make it 1-0. Jay Fulton (16'), Derek Mazou-Sacko (23'), Lyndon Dykes (45'), Zak Sturge (51') and Filip Lissah (83') were booked. Swansea's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Championship. Millwall: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Millwall. Swansea: two yellow cards. Swansea made five changes. Ronald entered for Swansea at 84 minutes and later scored in minute 90. Swansea finished with a clean sheet.