On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 4-5 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-2 in Championship. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1510 and 1493 — 17 points — for a 49.0% / 25.1% / 25.9% split.
Its point estimate is 1-1. Attack/defence pairs: 0.97/1.16 and 0.81/0.76. The two halves pull apart — Wrexham better going forward at 0.97, West Brom tighter at the back on 0.76. Versus the 1500 seed: +10 and -7. Scorelines above 8%: 5. 74.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 56 and 56 matches. Expected shares 61.6% against 38.4% on Elo. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.10 and 1.27. 49.0% goes to Wrexham, the model's lean. The match finished 1-2. Ratings sit 17 apart. Wrexham holds a 23.1-point edge on the next outcome. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Spread across the three results is 23.9 points. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 13.1%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Wrexham came into the game with one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring four goals and conceding nine. On 10 October, Wrexham recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Derby County.
Wrexham's away from home game on 10 October (Championship) ended 1-1 against Derby County, with one goal for and one against. On 19 September, Southampton faced Wrexham in Championship: Wrexham won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. Championship, 11 September brought an away meeting with West Ham; Wrexham lost 0-6, a return of zero goals scored and six conceded. Wrexham hosted Burnley on 8 September (Championship) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Swansea hosted Wrexham (Championship) on 5 September. For Wrexham, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
Wrexham: 15th, 11 points, nine matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
West Brom's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 3 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat at home to Birmingham on 10 October.
Playing at home against Birmingham (Championship), West Brom finished 0-1 on 10 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 20 September: West Brom lost 0-1 against Wolverhampton away from home in Championship, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against QPR in Championship, West Brom scored one and conceded one on 12 September; the at home result was 1-1. West Brom's away from home game on 9 September (Championship) ended 1-0 against Derby County, with one goal for and zero against. On 5 September, Watford faced West Brom in Championship: West Brom won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero.
14 points in nine matches put West Brom 10th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-2 draw at West Brom on 3 April and a 3-2 away win for West Brom on 16 August 2025.
After the match
West Brom edged past Wrexham 2-1 on 13 October 2026. Kieffer Moore opened the scoring 65 minutes into the game for Wrexham, set up by Oliver Rathbone, to make it 1-0. Isaac Price levelled it 79 minutes into the game for West Brom to make it 1-1. Aune Heggebø put West Brom in front late on, in the 84th minute, set up by Isaac Price, to make it 2-1. Rabby Nzingoula (39') and Zak Vyner (83') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Wrexham just 17 rating points ahead of West Brom, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives West Brom only a 25.9% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Wrexham picked up one yellow card. Wrexham: five substitutions. The card tally for West Brom was one yellow card. four changes were recorded for West Brom. Aune Heggebø entered for West Brom at 76 minutes and later scored in minute 84. The scoring record shows one lead change. The winners, West Brom, had been behind.