Prior record: 3-4-5 across 12 since 2010. Most recent 2018, 4-0 in Championship. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1386 and 1353 — 33 points — for a 51.4% / 24.6% / 24.0% split.
Goal expectation splits 1.77 to 1.64. Played and finished 1-3. First to second is a 26.8-point step, Wolverhampton over the draw. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.6%. Someone wins 75.4% of the time by this model. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. One edge each: scoring to Bolton (1.02 v 0.86), conceding to Wolverhampton (1.19 v 1.39). In absolute terms: Wolverhampton 0.86/1.19, Bolton 1.02/1.39 on attack and defence. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -114 and -147. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 63.7% to 36.3%. The distribution runs from 51.4% down to 24.0%. The ratings draw on 47 and 396 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The home side is rated higher. 51.4% goes to Wolverhampton, the model's lean. A 33-point difference on the rating scale.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Wolverhampton's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 7 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to Middlesbrough on 10 October.
0-1 was Wolverhampton's result against Middlesbrough on 10 October (Championship), playing away from home; Wolverhampton lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 20 September fixture (Championship) paired Wolverhampton with West Brom. Wolverhampton won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Sheffield Utd (Championship), Wolverhampton finished 1-0 on 13 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 6 September: Wolverhampton drew 2-2 against Birmingham away from home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against West Ham in Championship, Wolverhampton scored two and conceded four on 1 September; the away from home result was 2-4.
14 points in eight matches put Wolverhampton 6th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
Bolton came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding 12. A 2-1 defeat at home to Stoke (10 October) was their most recent result.
10 October: Bolton lost 1-2 against Stoke at home in Championship, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Norwich in Championship, Bolton scored four and conceded three on 20 September; the away from home result was 4-3. Bolton's at home game on 12 September (Championship) ended 1-0 against Cardiff, with one goal for and zero against. On 8 September, West Ham faced Bolton in Championship: Bolton lost 2-3 at home, having scored two and conceded three. Championship, 5 September brought an away meeting with Millwall; Bolton lost 0-4, a return of zero goals scored and four conceded.
Bolton: 17th, ten points, nine matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 4-0 away win for Wolverhampton on 21 April 2018 and a 5-1 home win for Wolverhampton on 25 November 2017.
After the match
Bolton beat Wolverhampton 3-1 on 13 October 2026. Atsuki Ito opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Bolton to make it 1-0. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde levelled it 50 minutes into the game for Wolverhampton, set up by Ladislav Krejčí, to make it 1-1. Bolton regained the lead through Sam Dalby 72 minutes into the game, set up by Larra, to make it 2-1. Josh Sheehan added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for Bolton to make it 3-1. Mateus Mané (26'), Larra (45'), Ethan Erhahon (76'), Kieran Trippier (89') and Sean Neave (90') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Bolton only a 24% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. three yellow cards went to Wolverhampton. The substitution total for Wolverhampton was four. Sean Neave, on in the 85th minute, was booked. two yellow cards went to Bolton. Bolton: five substitutions. Sam Dalby entered for Bolton at 66 minutes and later scored in minute 72.