8 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 12-11. The latest was 2018, 1-2 in Championship. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1557 and 1342 — 215 points — for a 74.2% / 18.2% / 7.6% split.
Both components point the same way, toward Middlesbrough: 1.06 to 0.60 going forward, 0.80 to 1.22 going back. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-0 highest at 14.7%. Expected goals come out at 1.92 to 0.65. Distance between the ratings: 215 points, wide on this scale. Someone wins 81.8% of the time by this model. As a single number the model says 1-0. The ratings draw on 49 and 38 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Raw profiles are 1.06 and 0.80 against 0.60 and 1.22. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +57 and -158. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Outcomes span 66.6 points. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. It ended 1-0. Middlesbrough holds a 56.0-point edge on the next outcome. Expected shares 83.4% against 16.6% on Elo. Most likely single result is Middlesbrough on 74.2%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Middlesbrough's previous five results comprised two wins and three draws. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 8 conceded, with no defeats. Birmingham were their latest opponents, away on 19 September: a 2-2 draw.
Playing away from home against Birmingham (Championship), Middlesbrough finished 2-2 on 19 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 15 September: Middlesbrough drew 2-2 against Millwall at home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Norwich in Championship, Middlesbrough scored four and conceded three on 12 September; the at home result was 4-3. Middlesbrough's away from home game on 5 September (Championship) ended 1-0 against QPR, with one goal for and zero against. On 2 September, Burnley faced Middlesbrough in Championship: Middlesbrough drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Middlesbrough 3rd after eight matches and 15 points.
Wolverhampton came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding seven. A 1-0 win at home to West Brom (20 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Stoke on 29 August.
The 20 September fixture (Championship) paired Wolverhampton with West Brom. Wolverhampton won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Sheffield Utd (Championship), Wolverhampton finished 1-0 on 13 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 6 September: Wolverhampton drew 2-2 against Birmingham away from home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against West Ham in Championship, Wolverhampton scored two and conceded four on 1 September; the away from home result was 2-4. Wolverhampton's at home game on 29 August (Championship) ended 4-1 against Stoke, with four goals for and one against.
Wolverhampton stood 5th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 14 points from seven matches.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 away win for Wolverhampton on 30 March 2018 and a 1-0 home win for Wolverhampton on 5 August 2017.
After the match
Middlesbrough edged past Wolverhampton 1-0 on 10 October 2026. William Lankshear opened the scoring 57 minutes into the game for Middlesbrough, set up by Tommy Conway, to make it 1-0. Sebastian Berhalter (11'), Nasser Djiga (12'), Neto Borges (40'), Rafiki Said Ahamada (53'), Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (66') and Myles Peart-Harris (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Middlesbrough 215 points stronger than Wolverhampton. 74.2% is Middlesbrough's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form. three yellow cards went to Middlesbrough. The substitution total for Middlesbrough was five. After coming on for Middlesbrough in minute 70, Myles Peart-Harris was booked. Wolverhampton: three yellow cards. Wolverhampton made five changes. After coming on for Wolverhampton in minute 51, Rafiki Said Ahamada was booked. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde was booked following entry for Wolverhampton in the 61st minute. Middlesbrough kept their opponents scoreless.