The head-to-head counts 20 recorded meetings since 2012: 6 to Blackburn, 6 to Cardiff, 8 drawn, 23-23 on aggregate. Most recently 2025, 1-2 in Championship. Today those sides rate 1467 and 1405, 62 apart, which resolves to 55.7% / 23.6% / 20.7%.
Cardiff has the better scoring rate (0.72) and Blackburn the better defensive one (0.86). Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 15.8% — 0-0 is next at 13.6%. Expected goals 1.16-0.83. Outcomes span 35.0 points. Rounded, that is 1-0. 62 points of rating separation. Raw profiles are 0.68 and 0.86 against 0.72 and 1.15. The tie closed out 2-1. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -33 and -95. Blackburn holds a 32.1-point edge on the next outcome. The model gives 76.4% to someone winning. Most likely single result is Blackburn on 55.7%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Both figures rest on decent samples, 46 and 658 matches. The higher rating expects 67.5% of the points, the lower 32.5%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Blackburn came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding seven. A 2-2 draw away to Portsmouth (19 September) was their most recent result.
Championship, 19 September brought an away meeting with Portsmouth; Blackburn drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Blackburn hosted Millwall on 12 September (Championship) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Sheffield Utd travelled to face Blackburn (Championship) on 8 September. For Blackburn, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-2 was Blackburn's result against Preston NE on 5 September (Championship), playing away from home; Blackburn lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 1 September fixture (Championship) paired Blackburn with Lincoln City. Blackburn drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.
Blackburn: 16th, nine points, eight matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
Cardiff: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; five goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 3-1 win at home to Charlton on 19 September.
On 19 September, Charlton faced Cardiff in Championship: Cardiff won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one. Championship, 12 September brought an away meeting with Bolton; Cardiff lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Cardiff hosted Stoke on 8 September (Championship) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Portsmouth hosted Cardiff (Championship) on 5 September. For Cardiff, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 1-2 was Cardiff's result against QPR on 2 September (Championship), playing away from home; Cardiff lost, with one scored to two conceded.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Cardiff 21st after eight matches and seven points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 away win for Cardiff on 15 March 2025 and a 3-1 away win for Blackburn on 9 November 2024.
After the match
Blackburn edged past Cardiff 2-1 on 10 October 2026. Andri Guðjohnsen opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Blackburn to make it 1-0. Todd Cantwell added to the tally in the 38th minute for Blackburn, set up by Ryoya Morishita, to make it 2-0. Callum Robinson pulled one back 53 minutes into the game for Cardiff, set up by Jack Moylan, to make it 1-2. Todd Cantwell (90') was booked. Blackburn won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 55.7%. one yellow card went to Blackburn. The substitution total for Blackburn was four. Cardiff made five changes.