8 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 12-9. The latest was 2026, 1-2 in Championship. Today those sides rate 1429 and 1470, 41 apart, which resolves to 39.8% / 27.2% / 33.0%.
5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.2%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The away side is rated higher. Attack/defence pairs: 0.73/1.00 and 0.90/1.02. By expected share of the points: 53.4% and 46.6%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 46 and 46 matches. xG: 1.10 to 1.21. Each side owns one half of the argument — Bristol City the scoring rate at 0.90, Charlton the conceding rate at 1.00. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -71 and -30. First to second is a 6.8-point step, Charlton over Bristol City. A 12.6-point range top to bottom. Ratings sit 41 apart. Charlton carries the largest share, 39.8%. Played and finished 1-1. A decisive result carries 72.8% against 27.2% for the draw.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Charlton: three draws and two defeats over five games; two goals scored, eight conceded, failing to score in three of those games, without a win. Latest: a 3-1 defeat away to Cardiff on 19 September.
On 19 September, Cardiff faced Charlton in Championship: Charlton lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. Championship, 12 September brought a home meeting with Portsmouth; Charlton drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Charlton hosted QPR on 9 September (Championship) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Stoke hosted Charlton (Championship) on 5 September. For Charlton, the score was 0-4: zero goals scored, four allowed. 1-1 was Charlton's result against West Brom on 2 September (Championship), playing away from home; Charlton drew, with one scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Charlton 10th after eight matches and 12 points.
Bristol City came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding seven. On 18 September, Bristol City recorded a 1-0 win hosting Watford.
Championship, 18 September brought a home meeting with Watford; Bristol City won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Bristol City hosted Lincoln City on 15 September (Championship) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Southampton hosted Bristol City (Championship) on 12 September. For Bristol City, the score was 1-4: one goal scored, four allowed. 2-1 was Bristol City's result against Burnley on 5 September (Championship), playing away from home; Bristol City won, with two scored to one conceded. The 1 September fixture (Championship) paired Bristol City with Preston NE. Bristol City won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one.
Bristol City: 9th, 13 points, eight matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 away win for Bristol City on 3 April and a 0-0 draw at Bristol City on 16 August 2025.
After the match
Charlton and Bristol City drew 1-1 on 10 October 2026. Karlan Grant opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Charlton, set up by Tyreece Campbell, to make it 1-0. Scott Twine levelled it from the penalty spot in the 27th minute for Bristol City to make it 1-1. Billy Koumetio (69'), Ivan Mesík (90') and Elijah Adebayo (90') were booked. The card tally for Charlton was two yellow cards. Charlton made five changes. Ivan Mesík entered for Charlton at 53 minutes and later was booked. Bristol City picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Bristol City was five. Elijah Adebayo was booked following entry for Bristol City in the 78th minute.