20 meetings sit in the record, first in 2011, aggregate 28-31. The latest was 2026, 1-1 in Championship. The present numbers are 1526 against 1562, and the model turns that into 40.7% / 27.0% / 32.3%.
Result on the day: 2-1. Ratings sit 36 apart. The distribution runs from 40.7% down to 27.0%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The leading outcome clears the second by 8.4 points. A decisive result carries 73.0% against 27.0% for the draw. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +26 and +62. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.1%. The higher rating expects 45.8% of the points, the lower 54.2%. Top of the distribution: Swansea, 40.7%. Raw profiles are 1.04 and 0.98 against 1.11 and 0.82. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Point estimate: 1-1. Expected goals 1.26-1.47. Higher rating: the away side. Neither component contradicts the other: Norwich leads 1.11-1.04 forward and 0.82-0.98 back. Behind them are 46 and 46 rated matches.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Swansea came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding five. A 2-1 win away to Lincoln City (19 September) was their most recent result.
Championship, 19 September brought an away meeting with Lincoln City; Swansea won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Swansea hosted Burnley on 12 September (Championship) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Southampton hosted Swansea (Championship) on 8 September. For Swansea, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed. 0-0 was Swansea's result against Wrexham on 5 September (Championship), playing at home; Swansea drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 1 September fixture (Championship) paired Swansea with Watford. Swansea won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero.
Swansea stood 1st in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 17 points from eight matches.
Norwich's previous five results comprised two wins and three defeats. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 11 conceded. Latest: a 4-3 defeat at home to Bolton on 20 September.
3-4 was Norwich's result against Bolton on 20 September (Championship), playing at home; Norwich lost, with three scored to four conceded. The 12 September fixture (Championship) paired Norwich with Middlesbrough. Norwich lost 3-4 away from home, netting three goals while conceding four. Playing at home against Birmingham (Championship), Norwich finished 2-1 on 9 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 5 September: Norwich won 3-1 against Sheffield Utd away from home in Championship, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Stoke in Championship, Norwich scored zero and conceded one on 1 September; the away from home result was 0-1.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Norwich 17th after eight matches and nine points.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at Norwich on 25 April and a 2-1 home win for Swansea on 25 October 2025.
After the match
Swansea edged past Norwich 2-1 on 10 October 2026. Jacob Wright opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Norwich, set up by Oscar Schwartau, to make it 1-0. Moussa Kounfolo Yeo levelled it 49 minutes into the game for Swansea, set up by Josh Tymon, to make it 1-1. Adam Idah put Swansea in front 59 minutes into the game, set up by Melker Widell, to make it 2-1. Jay Fulton (22') and Pelle Mattsson (58') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Norwich slightly the stronger side, by 36 rating points over Swansea, even though it was Swansea who won this one. The card tally for Swansea was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Swansea. The card tally for Norwich was one yellow card. four changes were recorded for Norwich. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. After trailing, Swansea secured the win.