On file: 34 previous meetings dating to 2010, 68-48 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-0 in Premier League. The live ratings are 1652 and 1840, giving 21.2% / 23.7% / 55.1%.
Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.34 to 1.21 says Liverpool, 0.46 to 1.01 says Arsenal. Higher rating: the away side. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Played and finished 0-1. As a single number the model says 0-1. Elo expected shares: 33.0% and 67.0%. The scoreline spread is even — 0-1 on 12.5% leads, but only just. First to second is a 31.4-point step, Arsenal over the draw. Both figures rest on decent samples, 62 and 65 matches. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +152 and +340. The forecast we stored before the match was 22.0% / 24.0% / 54.0%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. A decisive result carries 76.3% against 23.7% for the draw. xG: 0.93 to 1.65. The model's preferred outcome is Arsenal at 55.1%. 188 points of rating separation. The distribution runs from 55.1% down to 21.2%. Raw profiles are 1.34 and 1.01 against 1.21 and 0.46.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
14 goals for and ten against accompanied Liverpool's four wins and one defeat across five outings. On 25 October, Liverpool recorded a 2-0 win hosting Brighton Hove; their biggest win in that spell was 6-3 away to LASK on 14 October.
The 25 October fixture (Premier League) paired Liverpool with Brighton Hove. Liverpool won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Villarreal (Champions League), Liverpool finished 4-3 on 20 October. Their score comprised four goals, against three from the opposition. 17 October: Liverpool won 2-1 against Brentford away from home in Premier League, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against LASK in Champions League, Liverpool scored six and conceded three on 14 October; the away from home result was 6-3. Liverpool's at home game on 11 October (Premier League) ended 0-3 against Man City, with zero goals for and three against.
Liverpool stood 5th in the results-based Premier League table before kickoff, with 15 points from eight matches.
Arsenal were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring ten goals and conceding three, keeping three clean sheets. A 2-0 win at home to Everton (24 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Lille on 13 October.
Premier League, 24 October brought a home meeting with Everton; Arsenal won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Arsenal visited Bayern on 21 October (Champions League) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Nottingham hosted Arsenal (Premier League) on 18 October. For Arsenal, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 3-0 was Arsenal's result against Lille on 13 October (Champions League), playing at home; Arsenal won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 10 October fixture (Premier League) paired Arsenal with Leeds United. Arsenal won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one.
Arsenal: 2nd, 21 points, eight matches in the calculated Premier League standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 0-0 draw at Arsenal on 8 January and a 1-0 home win for Liverpool on 31 August 2025.
After the match
Arsenal edged past Liverpool 1-0 on 1 November 2026. Arsenal: 55.1% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Arsenal are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Premier League and the 2026/27 Champions League.