8 meetings sit in the record, first in 2022, aggregate 13-7. The latest was 2025, 1-1 in Championship. The live ratings are 1577 and 1449, giving 64.7% / 21.2% / 14.1%.
These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The distribution runs from 64.7% down to 14.1%. 128 points of rating separation. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 64.4% / 21.3% / 14.3%. That call matched the result. Both figures rest on decent samples, 55 and 47 matches. Neither component contradicts the other: Coventry City leads 1.22-0.74 forward and 0.92-1.20 back. Its rounded call is 2-0. Raw profiles are 1.22 and 0.92 against 0.74 and 1.20. The leading outcome clears the second by 43.5 points. The home side is rated higher. Final score: 3-1. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected shares 75.2% against 24.8% on Elo. 2-0 leads the scorelines at 10.7% — not a strong call. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +77 and -51. Expected goals 2.18-0.92. The model's preferred outcome is Coventry City at 64.7%. 78.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Coventry City: two wins and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, ten conceded. Fulham were their latest opponents, at home on 24 October: a 1-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Newcastle on 12 October.
On 24 October, Fulham faced Coventry City in Premier League: Coventry City lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. Premier League, 19 October brought an away meeting with Tottenham; Coventry City lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. Coventry City hosted Newcastle on 12 October (Premier League) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Nottingham hosted Coventry City (Premier League) on 19 September. For Coventry City, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 0-5 was Coventry City's result against Brighton Hove on 13 September (Premier League), playing at home; Coventry City lost, with zero scored to five conceded.
six points in eight matches put Coventry City 19th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
Sunderland: one draw and four defeats over five games; three goals scored, 11 conceded, failing to score in four of those games, without a win. Leeds United were their latest opponents, at home on 25 October: a 0-0 draw.
0-0 was Sunderland's result against Leeds United on 25 October (Premier League), playing at home; Sunderland drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 18 October fixture (Premier League) paired Sunderland with Bournemouth. Sunderland lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Brighton Hove (Premier League), Sunderland finished 0-2 on 10 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 20 September: Sunderland lost 3-5 against Man City away from home in Premier League, scoring three goals and allowing five. Against Arsenal in Premier League, Sunderland scored zero and conceded two on 12 September; the at home result was 0-2.
five points in eight matches put Sunderland 20th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at Sunderland on 13 May 2025 and a 2-1 away win for Sunderland on 9 May 2025.
After the match
Coventry City beat Sunderland 3-1 on 31 October 2026. Tatsuhiro Sakamoto opened the scoring in the 17th minute for Coventry City to make it 1-0. Taiwo Awoniyi added to the tally in the 37th minute for Coventry City to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Coventry City extended the lead through Jack Rudoni 52 minutes into the game, set up by Victor Torp, to make it 3-0. Enzo Le Fée got one back from the penalty spot 67 minutes into the game for Sunderland to make it 1-3. Omar Alderete (90') was sent off. Victor Torp (7'), Tatsuhiro Sakamoto (55') and Omar Alderete (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Coventry City 128 points stronger than Sunderland. 64.7% is Coventry City's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Coventry City picked up two yellow cards. Coventry City: three substitutions. Sunderland: one yellow card and one red card. four changes were recorded for Sunderland.