Across 8 recorded meetings back to 2013 the split is 2-2-4 from Bournemouth's side on wins, 17-16 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-2 in Premier League. Today those sides rate 1600 and 1533, 67 apart, which resolves to 56.5% / 23.4% / 20.1%.
Versus the 1500 seed: +100 and +33. Behind them are 47 and 47 rated matches. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Its point estimate is 1-1. Win-or-lose totals 76.6%; the draw takes the rest. 56.5% goes to Bournemouth, the model's lean. The match finished 2-0. The gap between first and second outcome is 33.1 points, Bournemouth ahead of the draw. By expected share of the points: 68.1% and 31.9%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.6% leads, but only just. Before kickoff our model had this at 45.4% / 25.9% / 28.6%. That call matched the result. The rating gap itself is 67 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. On expected goals the model has it 1.43 against 1.06. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The three results cover 36.4 points. The higher rating belongs to the home side.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Bournemouth's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 8 conceded. Latest: a 3-0 win away to Man United on 25 October.
On 25 October, Man United faced Bournemouth in Premier League: Bournemouth won 3-0 away from home, having scored three and conceded zero. Premier League, 18 October brought a home meeting with Sunderland; Bournemouth won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Bournemouth visited Chelsea on 10 October (Premier League) and lost 1-5; their goals totalled one, compared with five conceded. Liverpool travelled to face Bournemouth (Premier League) on 20 September. For Bournemouth, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 2-2 was Bournemouth's result against Brentford on 12 September (Premier League), playing at home; Bournemouth drew, with two scored to two conceded.
nine points in eight matches put Bournemouth 13th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
Leeds United came into the game with one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding four. On 25 October, Leeds United recorded a 0-0 draw visiting Sunderland; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Newcastle on 14 September.
The 25 October fixture (Premier League) paired Leeds United with Sunderland. Leeds United drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Man United (Premier League), Leeds United finished 1-1 on 18 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 10 October: Leeds United lost 1-2 against Arsenal away from home in Premier League, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Crystal Palace in Premier League, Leeds United scored zero and conceded zero on 20 September; the at home result was 0-0. Leeds United's at home game on 14 September (Premier League) ended 4-1 against Newcastle, with four goals for and one against.
Leeds United: 7th, 11 points, eight matches in the calculated Premier League standings at kickoff.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth on 22 April and a 2-2 draw at Leeds United on 27 September 2025.
After the match
Bournemouth beat Leeds United 2-0 on 31 October 2026. Evanilson opened the scoring in the 31st minute for Bournemouth, set up by Justin Kluivert, to make it 1-0. Amine Adli added to the tally in the 94th minute for Bournemouth, set up by Eli Kroupi, to make it 2-0. Nico Elvedi (35'), Ryan Christie (45'), Ethan Ampadu (62'), Adam Smith (74') and Tyler Adams (74') were booked. Bournemouth won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 56.5%. Bournemouth picked up three yellow cards. Bournemouth: five substitutions. After coming on for Bournemouth in minute 68, Eli Kroupi provided an assist. Amine Adli scored in minute 94 following entry for Bournemouth in the 88th minute. two yellow cards went to Leeds United. Leeds United: five substitutions. Bournemouth kept their opponents scoreless.