On file: 34 previous meetings dating to 2010, 66-38 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-1 in Premier League. The live ratings are 1529 and 1514, giving 48.7% / 25.2% / 26.1%.
The forecast we stored before the match was 57.6% / 23.1% / 19.3%. The match did not follow it. Honours split: 1.20 forward for Chelsea, 0.99 back for Tottenham. A 15-point spread sits between the two figures. Expected goals 1.76-1.58. The gap between first and second outcome is 22.6 points, Chelsea ahead of Tottenham. Higher rating: the home side. It ended 0-2. The model gives 74.8% to someone winning. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. With 57 and 57 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. A 23.5-point range top to bottom. The model's preferred outcome is Chelsea at 48.7%. The four component numbers read 1.20, 1.24, 0.95, 0.99. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.8%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +29 and +14. Its rounded call is 1-1. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Expected shares 61.3% against 38.7% on Elo.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Chelsea: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, eight conceded. Everton were their latest opponents, away on 17 October: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Bournemouth on 10 October.
On 17 October, Everton faced Chelsea in Premier League: Chelsea won 2-0 away from home, having scored two and conceded zero. Premier League, 10 October brought a home meeting with Bournemouth; Chelsea won 5-1, a return of five goals scored and one conceded. Chelsea visited Brentford on 18 September (Premier League) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded. Hull City travelled to face Chelsea (Premier League) on 12 September. For Chelsea, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-2 was Chelsea's result against Arsenal on 6 September (Premier League), playing away from home; Chelsea lost, with one scored to two conceded.
Before kickoff, Premier League's results-based standings placed Chelsea 4th after seven matches and 13 points.
six goals for and five against accompanied Tottenham's one win, three draws and one defeat across five outings. On 19 October, Tottenham recorded a 3-1 win hosting Coventry City.
Premier League, 19 October brought a home meeting with Coventry City; Tottenham won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Tottenham visited Man United on 10 October (Premier League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Aston Villa travelled to face Tottenham (Premier League) on 19 September. For Tottenham, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 0-0 was Tottenham's result against Everton on 12 September (Premier League), playing at home; Tottenham drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 5 September fixture (Premier League) paired Tottenham with Nottingham. Tottenham drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.
Tottenham stood 17th in the results-based Premier League table before kickoff, with six points from seven matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 home win for Chelsea on 19 May and a 1-0 away win for Chelsea on 1 November 2025.
After the match
Tottenham beat Chelsea 2-0 on 24 October 2026. Mike Penders (an own goal) opened the scoring 77 minutes into the game for Tottenham to make it 1-0. Mathys Tel added to the tally late on, in the 87th minute for Tottenham to make it 2-0. Cole Palmer (80') was sent off. 7 players were booked, among them Conor Gallagher (67'), Mickey van de Ven (71'), Cole Palmer (71'), Mateus Fernandes (72'), Roberto De Zerbi (72') and Pedro Neto (79'). Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Chelsea just 15 rating points ahead of Tottenham, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Tottenham only a 26.1% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Tottenham are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. The card tally for Chelsea was three yellow cards and one red card. three changes were recorded for Chelsea. four yellow cards went to Tottenham. The substitution total for Tottenham was five. Conor Gallagher, on in the 51st minute, was booked. Tottenham conceded no goals.