Prior record: 9-5-4 across 18 since 2015. Most recent 2026, 2-2 in Premier League. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1539 and 1600 — 61 points — for a 36.7% / 27.8% / 35.4% split.
The higher rating expects 49.4% of the points, the lower 50.6%. A 61-point spread sits between the two figures. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +39 and +100. Both components point the same way, toward Bournemouth: 1.14 to 1.09 going forward, 0.93 to 1.13 going back. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Top to bottom the spread is only 8.9 points. Attack/defence pairs: 1.09/1.13 and 1.14/0.93. xG: 1.50 to 1.74. Only 1.3 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 60.0% / 22.5% / 17.5%. That one did not come off. Final score: 0-3. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Win-or-lose totals 72.1%; the draw takes the rest. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The model's preferred outcome is Man United at 36.7%. Neither figure is thin: 50 and 47 matches respectively sit behind them.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
four goals for and nine against accompanied Man United's three draws and two defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 21 October, Man United recorded a 4-1 defeat visiting Como 1907.
Champions League, 21 October brought an away meeting with Como 1907; Man United lost 1-4, a return of one goal scored and four conceded. Man United visited Leeds United on 18 October (Premier League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Atleti hosted Man United (Champions League) on 13 October. For Man United, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Man United's result against Tottenham on 10 October (Premier League), playing at home; Man United drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 20 September fixture (Premier League) paired Man United with Fulham. Man United drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one.
Man United stood 15th in the results-based Premier League table before kickoff, with seven points from seven matches.
Bournemouth's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 10 conceded. Latest: a 2-0 win at home to Sunderland on 18 October.
Against Sunderland in Premier League, Bournemouth scored two and conceded zero on 18 October; the at home result was 2-0. Bournemouth's away from home game on 10 October (Premier League) ended 1-5 against Chelsea, with one goal for and five against. On 20 September, Liverpool faced Bournemouth in Premier League: Bournemouth lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. Premier League, 12 September brought a home meeting with Brentford; Bournemouth drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Bournemouth visited Newcastle on 5 September (Premier League) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded.
six points in seven matches put Bournemouth 17th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth on 20 March and a 4-4 draw at Man United on 15 December 2025.
After the match
Bournemouth comfortably beat Man United 3-0 on 25 October 2026. Rayan opened the scoring in the 38th minute for Bournemouth, set up by Justin Kluivert, to make it 1-0. Marcus Tavernier added to the tally in the 43rd minute for Bournemouth, set up by Adrien Truffert, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Bournemouth extended the lead through Evanilson 71 minutes into the game, set up by Lewis Cook, to make it 3-0. Andrey Santos (22'), Tyler Adams (27'), Ayden Heaven (37'), Youri Tielemans (40') and Harry Maguire (45') were booked. The card tally for Man United was four yellow cards. Man United made four changes. Bournemouth picked up one yellow card. Bournemouth: five substitutions. Bournemouth kept their opponents scoreless.