On record: 10 meetings from 2021, 11-22 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-1 in Premier League. The live ratings are 1551 and 1634, giving 33.8% / 27.4% / 38.8%.
The tie closed out 1-2. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Top of the distribution: Liverpool, 38.8%. The four component numbers read 1.14, 0.96, 1.33, 1.02. Ratings sit 83 apart. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Versus the 1500 seed: +51 and +134. The ratings draw on 45 and 59 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. All three results are bunched inside 11.4 points. The leading outcome clears the second by 5.0 points. Each side owns one half of the argument — Liverpool the scoring rate at 1.33, Brentford the conceding rate at 0.96. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Before kickoff our model had this at 39.2% / 27.3% / 33.5%. The result went the other way. The away side is rated higher. Expected goals 1.73-1.72. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 9.4%. By expected share of the points: 47.4% and 52.6%. 72.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Brentford were unbeaten in their last five games, with one win and four draws, scoring nine goals and conceding six. On 10 October, Brentford recorded a 2-2 draw visiting Aston Villa; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Chelsea on 18 September.
The 10 October fixture (Premier League) paired Brentford with Aston Villa. Brentford drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Chelsea (Premier League), Brentford finished 3-0 on 18 September. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 12 September: Brentford drew 2-2 against Bournemouth away from home in Premier League, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Sunderland in Premier League, Brentford scored one and conceded one on 5 September; the at home result was 1-1. Brentford's away from home game on 30 August (Premier League) ended 1-1 against Leeds United, with one goal for and one against.
Brentford: 5th, ten points, six matches in the calculated Premier League standings at kickoff.
Liverpool came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding seven. A 6-3 win away to LASK (14 October) was their most recent result.
14 October: Liverpool won 6-3 against LASK away from home in Champions League, scoring six goals and allowing three. Against Man City in Premier League, Liverpool scored zero and conceded three on 11 October; the at home result was 0-3. Liverpool's away from home game on 20 September (Premier League) ended 1-0 against Bournemouth, with one goal for and zero against. On 12 September, Fulham faced Liverpool in Premier League: Liverpool drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Champions League, 9 September brought a home meeting with Atleti; Liverpool won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
Liverpool: 9th, nine points, six matches in the calculated Premier League standings at kickoff.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at Liverpool on 24 May and a 3-2 home win for Brentford on 25 October 2025.
After the match
Liverpool edged past Brentford 2-1 on 17 October 2026. Keane Lewis-Potter opened the scoring in the 44th minute for Brentford, set up by Thiago, to make it 1-0. Víctor Muñoz levelled it 62 minutes into the game for Liverpool, set up by Florian Wirtz, to make it 1-1. Alexander Isak put Liverpool in front 70 minutes into the game, set up by Bradley Barcola, to make it 2-1. Yegor Yarmolyuk (45') and Vitaly Janelt (90') were sent off. Bradley Barcola (31'), Thiago (46'), Jeremy Jacquet (49'), Alexis Mac Allister (53'), Kevin Schade (60') and Vitaly Janelt (63') were booked. Brentford picked up three yellow cards and two red cards. Brentford: five substitutions. After coming on for Brentford in minute 46, Kevin Schade was booked. three yellow cards went to Liverpool. The substitution total for Liverpool was five. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. Liverpool turned a deficit into victory.