25 meetings sit in the record, first in 2011, aggregate 28-31. The latest was 2026, 0-1 in Premier League. Against that, current ratings read 1653 and 1450, a 203-point margin, and the model splits the tie 73.2% / 18.6% / 8.3%.
The model's preferred outcome is Brighton Hove at 73.2%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 3-0. The ratings draw on 45 and 45 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Someone wins 81.5% of the time by this model. 3-0 leads the scorelines at 9.6% — not a strong call. The gap between first and second outcome is 54.6 points, Brighton Hove ahead of the draw. Played and finished 5-0. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +153 and -50. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The xG line reads 3.09 to 0.85. A 203-point spread sits between the two figures. The higher rating expects 82.4% of the points, the lower 17.6%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 71.1% / 19.3% / 9.6%. It landed. Most and least likely outcomes are 64.9 points apart. Higher rating: the home side. Brighton Hove is ahead on each half — 1.50 to 0.85 in attack, 0.73 to 1.39 in defence.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Brighton Hove came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 14 goals and conceding five, keeping three clean sheets. On 10 October, Brighton Hove recorded a 2-0 win visiting Sunderland; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to Coventry City on 13 September.
Brighton Hove's away from home game on 10 October (Premier League) ended 2-0 against Sunderland, with two goals for and zero against. On 19 September, Arsenal faced Brighton Hove in Premier League: Brighton Hove won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. Premier League, 13 September brought an away meeting with Coventry City; Brighton Hove won 5-0, a return of five goals scored and zero conceded. Brighton Hove hosted Leeds United on 5 September (Premier League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Chelsea hosted Brighton Hove (Premier League) on 30 August. For Brighton Hove, the score was 3-4: three goals scored, four allowed.
Brighton Hove stood 3rd in the results-based Premier League table before kickoff, with 13 points from six matches.
Crystal Palace: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; nine goals scored, ten conceded. Latest: a 3-1 win at home to Nottingham on 11 October.
On 11 October, Nottingham faced Crystal Palace in Premier League: Crystal Palace won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one. Premier League, 20 September brought an away meeting with Leeds United; Crystal Palace drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Crystal Palace hosted Ipswich Town on 12 September (Premier League) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Fulham hosted Crystal Palace (Premier League) on 5 September. For Crystal Palace, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 1-4 was Crystal Palace's result against Man City on 28 August (Premier League), playing at home; Crystal Palace lost, with one scored to four conceded.
seven points in six matches put Crystal Palace 13th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 away win for Crystal Palace on 8 February and a 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace on 9 November 2025.
After the match
Brighton Hove overwhelmed Crystal Palace 5-0 on 18 October 2026. Jaydee Canvot (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Brighton Hove to make it 1-0. Diego Gómez added to the tally inside the first 7 minutes for Brighton Hove, set up by Olivier Boscagli, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Brighton Hove extended the lead through Yasin Ayari inside the first 10 minutes, set up by Charalampos Kostoulas, to make it 3-0. Charalampos Kostoulas scored the 4th goal for Brighton Hove 49 minutes into the game as they extended the lead to make it 4-0. Brighton Hove extended the lead late on, in the 84th minute; the match's 5th goal came through Jack Hinshelwood to make it 5-0. Pascal Groß (29'), Daichi Kamada (51') and Chema Andrés (64') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Brighton Hove 203 points stronger than Crystal Palace. Brighton Hove's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 73.2% for a win in this pairing. Brighton Hove's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins. two yellow cards went to Brighton Hove. The substitution total for Brighton Hove was five. After coming on for Brighton Hove in minute 71, Jack Hinshelwood scored in minute 84. Crystal Palace: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Crystal Palace. Brighton Hove kept their opponents scoreless.