Prior record: 3-2-5 across 10 since 2018. Most recent 2026, 0-0 in Premier League. The present numbers are 1488 against 1818, and the model turns that into 8.5% / 18.7% / 72.8%.
Raw profiles are 0.92 and 0.93 against 1.20 and 0.46. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. 81.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Arsenal is ahead on each half — 1.20 to 0.92 in attack, 0.46 to 0.93 in defence. The underlying goal expectation is 0.63 for Nottingham, 1.51 for Arsenal. The higher-rated side expects 82.1% of the points; the other side 17.9%. Result on the day: 0-1. A 64.3-point range top to bottom. Point estimate: 0-1. Before kickoff our model had this at 12.4% / 20.6% / 67.0%. That call matched the result. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -12 and +318. The ratings draw on 45 and 62 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The model's preferred outcome is Arsenal at 72.8%. Rating separation comes to 330 points. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Arsenal sits 54.1 points above the next most likely result.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Nottingham's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 7 conceded. Crystal Palace were their latest opponents, away on 11 October: a 3-1 defeat.
Playing away from home against Crystal Palace (Premier League), Nottingham finished 1-3 on 11 October. Their score comprised one goal, against three from the opposition. 19 September: Nottingham lost 0-1 against Coventry City at home in Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Aston Villa in Premier League, Nottingham scored two and conceded one on 12 September; the away from home result was 2-1. Nottingham's at home game on 5 September (Premier League) ended 0-0 against Tottenham, with zero goals for and zero against. On 29 August, Liverpool faced Nottingham in Premier League: Nottingham drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two.
five points in six matches put Nottingham 18th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
Arsenal came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding four, keeping three clean sheets. A 3-0 win at home to Lille (13 October) was their most recent result.
Lille travelled to face Arsenal (Champions League) on 13 October. For Arsenal, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 2-1 was Arsenal's result against Leeds United on 10 October (Premier League), playing at home; Arsenal won, with two scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Premier League) paired Arsenal with Brighton Hove. Arsenal lost 0-3 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Sunderland (Premier League), Arsenal finished 2-0 on 12 September. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 9 September: Arsenal won 1-0 against Napoli away from home in Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero.
Arsenal: 3rd, 15 points, six matches in the calculated Premier League standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 0-0 draw at Nottingham on 17 January and a 3-0 home win for Arsenal on 13 September 2025.
After the match
Arsenal edged past Nottingham 1-0 on 18 October 2026. Noni Madueke opened the scoring 80 minutes into the game for Arsenal, set up by Declan Rice, to make it 1-0. Neco Williams (17') and Noni Madueke (53') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Arsenal 330 points stronger than Nottingham. Arsenal: 72.8% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. The card tally for Nottingham was one yellow card. Nottingham made four changes. Arsenal picked up one yellow card. Arsenal: four substitutions. After coming on for Arsenal in minute 46, Noni Madueke scored in minute 80 and was booked. Arsenal kept their opponents scoreless.