Prior record: 11-7-15 across 33 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 3-0 in Premier League. Against that, current ratings read 1496 and 1539, a 43-point margin, and the model splits the tie 39.6% / 27.2% / 33.2%.
Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 9.4%. 72.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Goal expectation splits 1.79 to 1.68. Everton holds a 6.4-point edge on the next outcome. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. The forecast we stored before the match was 52.9% / 24.2% / 22.9%. That one did not come off. Raw profiles are 0.93 and 0.99 against 1.26 and 1.30. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Higher rating: the away side. It ended 0-2. By expected share of the points: 53.2% and 46.8%. Between best and worst outcome there is 12.4 points of daylight. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Neither figure is thin: 45 and 55 matches respectively sit behind them. 43 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Everton carries the largest share, 39.6%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -4 and +39. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.26 to 0.93 says Chelsea, 0.99 to 1.30 says Everton.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Everton: one win and four draws over five games; six goals scored, five conceded, unbeaten. Hull City were their latest opponents, away on 11 October: a 2-2 draw.
Everton visited Hull City on 11 October (Premier League) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Ipswich Town travelled to face Everton (Premier League) on 19 September. For Everton, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 0-0 was Everton's result against Tottenham on 12 September (Premier League), playing away from home; Everton drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 6 September fixture (Premier League) paired Everton with Man United. Everton drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Bournemouth (Premier League), Everton finished 1-1 on 29 August. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
ten points in six matches put Everton 5th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
Chelsea came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring 12 goals and conceding 11. A 5-1 win at home to Bournemouth (10 October) was their most recent result.
Premier League, 10 October brought a home meeting with Bournemouth; Chelsea won 5-1, a return of five goals scored and one conceded. Chelsea visited Brentford on 18 September (Premier League) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded. Hull City travelled to face Chelsea (Premier League) on 12 September. For Chelsea, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-2 was Chelsea's result against Arsenal on 6 September (Premier League), playing away from home; Chelsea lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 30 August fixture (Premier League) paired Chelsea with Brighton Hove. Chelsea won 4-3 at home, netting four goals while conceding three.
Chelsea stood 6th in the results-based Premier League table before kickoff, with ten points from six matches.
Earlier results between these sides included a 3-0 home win for Everton on 21 March and a 2-0 home win for Chelsea on 13 December 2025.
After the match
Chelsea beat Everton 2-0 on 17 October 2026. Pedro Neto opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Chelsea to make it 1-0. Pedro Neto added to the tally late on, in the 90th minute for Chelsea to make it 2-0. 7 players were booked, among them Harrison Armstrong (23'), Pedro Neto (27'), Josh Acheampong (32'), James Tarkowski (34'), Morgan Rogers (34') and Cole Palmer (65'). three yellow cards went to Everton. The substitution total for Everton was three. After coming on for Everton in minute 85, Christian Nørgaard was booked. four yellow cards went to Chelsea. The substitution total for Chelsea was five. Chelsea kept their opponents scoreless.