On record: 12 meetings from 2013, 17-18 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2023, 2-0 in FA Cup. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1481 and 1557 — 76 points — for a 34.6% / 27.6% / 37.8% split.
Both components point the same way, toward Hull City: 0.94 to 0.80 going forward, 0.83 to 0.94 going back. Its point estimate is 0-1. A 76-point difference on the rating scale. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.99 and 1.19. 72.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. A 3.2-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. Scorelines above 8%: 4. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 48.4% to 51.6%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 30.4% / 26.4% / 43.2%. The result went the other way. Neither figure is thin: 45 and 56 matches respectively sit behind them. The match finished 1-0. Spread thin across outcomes, 0-1 highest at 13.4%. Top to bottom the spread is only 10.2 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -19 and +57. Top of the distribution: Hull City, 37.8%. The away side is rated higher. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Fulham: two draws and three defeats over five games; four goals scored, seven conceded, without a win. Ipswich Town were their latest opponents, away on 10 October: a 2-1 defeat.
Playing away from home against Ipswich Town (Premier League), Fulham finished 1-2 on 10 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 20 September: Fulham drew 1-1 against Man United at home in Premier League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Liverpool in Premier League, Fulham scored zero and conceded zero on 12 September; the away from home result was 0-0. Fulham's at home game on 5 September (Premier League) ended 2-3 against Crystal Palace, with two goals for and three against. On 30 August, Sunderland faced Fulham in Premier League: Fulham lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one.
Before kickoff, Premier League's results-based standings placed Fulham 20th after six matches and two points.
Hull City's previous five results comprised one win, three draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 6 conceded. Everton were their latest opponents, at home on 11 October: a 2-2 draw.
2-2 was Hull City's result against Everton on 11 October (Premier League), playing at home; Hull City drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 19 September fixture (Premier League) paired Hull City with Newcastle. Hull City lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Chelsea (Premier League), Hull City finished 2-2 on 12 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 5 September: Hull City drew 0-0 against Aston Villa at home in Premier League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Coventry City in Premier League, Hull City scored one and conceded zero on 29 August; the away from home result was 1-0.
nine points in six matches put Hull City 8th in the pre-match results-based Premier League standings.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-0 away win for Fulham on 7 January 2023 and a 1-0 away win for Fulham on 12 February 2022.
After the match
Fulham edged past Hull City 1-0 on 17 October 2026. Alex Iwobi opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for Fulham, set up by Sander Berge, to make it 1-0. Ryan Sessegnon (90') was sent off. Lucas Herrington (22'), Joshua King (27'), Regan Slater (27') and Sander Berge (84') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Hull City slightly the stronger side, by 76 rating points over Fulham, even though it was Fulham who won this one. The card tally for Fulham was two yellow cards and one red card. Fulham made three changes. Ryan Sessegnon entered for Fulham at 78 minutes and later was sent off. two yellow cards went to Hull City. The substitution total for Hull City was five. A clean sheet for Fulham.