Across 33 recorded meetings back to 2010 the split is 15-8-10 in Man United's favour on wins, 47-43 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-0 in Premier League. The live ratings are 1628 and 1434, giving 72.1% / 18.9% / 8.9%.
The underlying goal expectation is 2.17 for Man United, 1.01 for Tottenham. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Between best and worst outcome there is 63.2 points of daylight. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Both figures rest on decent samples, 44 and 54 matches. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. By expected share of the points: 81.6% and 18.4%. A decisive result carries 81.0% against 18.9% for the draw. Its rounded call is 2-1. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +128 and -66. The gap between first and second outcome is 53.2 points, Man United ahead of the draw. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 74.3% / 18.2% / 7.5%. That one did not come off. Man United holds both halves of the profile — 1.27 against 0.79 for scoring, 0.94 against 1.15 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Man United came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 12 goals and conceding six. A 1-1 draw away to Fulham (20 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Sabah FK on 10 September.
Premier League, 20 September brought an away meeting with Fulham; Man United drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Man United hosted Man City on 13 September (Premier League) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Sabah FK travelled to face Man United (Champions League) on 10 September. For Man United, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 2-2 was Man United's result against Everton on 6 September (Premier League), playing away from home; Man United drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 30 August fixture (Premier League) paired Man United with Ipswich Town. Man United won 5-2 at home, netting five goals while conceding two.
Man United: 12th, five points, five matches in the calculated Premier League standings at kickoff.
two goals for and eight against accompanied Tottenham's two draws and three defeats across five outings, failing to score in four of those games, a winless run. On 19 September, Tottenham recorded a 3-2 defeat hosting Aston Villa.
19 September: Tottenham lost 2-3 against Aston Villa at home in Premier League, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against Everton in Premier League, Tottenham scored zero and conceded zero on 12 September; the at home result was 0-0. Tottenham's away from home game on 5 September (Premier League) ended 0-0 against Nottingham, with zero goals for and zero against. On 29 August, Newcastle faced Tottenham in Premier League: Tottenham lost 0-2 at home, having scored zero and conceded two. Premier League, 22 August brought an away meeting with Brentford; Tottenham lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded.
Tottenham stood 20th in the results-based Premier League table before kickoff, with two points from five matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-0 home win for Man United on 7 February and a 2-2 draw at Tottenham on 8 November 2025.
After the match
Man United and Tottenham drew 1-1 on 10 October 2026. Bryan Mbeumo opened the scoring 73 minutes into the game for Man United, set up by Matheus Cunha, to make it 1-0. Dominic Solanke levelled it in the 92nd minute for Tottenham, set up by Sandro Tonali, to make it 1-1. Rodrigo Bentancur (78') was sent off. 7 players were booked, among them Conor Gallagher (4'), Luke Shaw (78'), Jan Paul van Hecke (78'), Bruno Fernandes (84'), Lisandro Martínez (87') and Diogo Dalot (90'). The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Man United 194 points stronger than Tottenham. Man United: four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Man United. Diogo Dalot was booked following entry for Man United in the 59th minute. three yellow cards and one red card went to Tottenham. The substitution total for Tottenham was five. Rodrigo Bentancur entered for Tottenham at 66 minutes and later was sent off.