On record: 36 meetings from 2010, 55-63 on aggregate, 10 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-4 in FA Cup. The present numbers are 1590 against 1778, and the model turns that into 21.2% / 23.7% / 55.1%.
The leading outcome clears the second by 31.4 points. The model's preferred outcome is Man City at 55.1%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +90 and +278. Played and finished 0-3. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Both components point the same way, toward Man City: 1.55 to 1.12 going forward, 0.71 to 0.97 going back. Scorelines above 8%: 4. A 188-point difference on the rating scale. Expected goals sit at 1.18 against 2.03. Its point estimate is 1-2. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 9.8%. In absolute terms: Liverpool 1.12/0.97, Man City 1.55/0.71 on attack and defence. The higher rating expects 67.0% of the points, the lower 33.0%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 57 and 55 rated matches respectively. Higher rating: the away side. Before kickoff our model had this at 26.1% / 25.2% / 48.6%. It landed.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and three against accompanied Liverpool's three wins and two draws across five outings, keeping three clean sheets, an unbeaten run. On 20 September, Liverpool recorded a 1-0 win visiting Bournemouth.
20 September: Liverpool won 1-0 against Bournemouth away from home in Premier League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Fulham in Premier League, Liverpool scored zero and conceded zero on 12 September; the at home result was 0-0. Liverpool's at home game on 9 September (Champions League) ended 2-1 against Atleti, with two goals for and one against. On 4 September, Ipswich Town faced Liverpool in Premier League: Liverpool won 2-0 away from home, having scored two and conceded zero. Premier League, 29 August brought a home meeting with Nottingham; Liverpool drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded.
Liverpool stood 8th in the results-based Premier League table before kickoff, with nine points from five matches.
Man City: five wins over five games; 13 goals scored, four conceded, keeping three clean sheets, unbeaten. Sunderland were their latest opponents, at home on 20 September: a 5-3 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Crystal Palace on 28 August.
Playing at home against Sunderland (Premier League), Man City finished 5-3 on 20 September. Their score comprised five goals, against three from the opposition. 13 September: Man City won 1-0 against Man United away from home in Premier League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Porto in Champions League, Man City scored two and conceded zero on 8 September; the away from home result was 2-0. Man City's at home game on 5 September (Premier League) ended 1-0 against Coventry City, with one goal for and zero against. On 28 August, Crystal Palace faced Man City in Premier League: Man City won 4-1 away from home, having scored four and conceded one.
Before kickoff, Premier League's results-based standings placed Man City 1st after five matches and 15 points.
The last two recorded meetings were a 4-0 home win for Man City on 4 April and a 2-1 away win for Man City on 8 February.
After the match
Man City comfortably beat Liverpool 3-0 on 11 October 2026. Erling Haaland opened the scoring 65 minutes into the game for Man City to make it 1-0. Jeremy Doku added to the tally 68 minutes into the game for Man City, set up by Elliot Anderson, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Man City extended the lead through Rayan Cherki 78 minutes into the game, set up by Joško Gvardiol, to make it 3-0. Ryan Gravenberch (62') was sent off. Ronald Araújo (8'), Ryan Gravenberch (47'), Nico O'Reilly (58'), Ayyoub Bouaddi (86') and Virgil van Dijk (90') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. Man City: 55.1% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Man City's current recorded form ends with 7 consecutive wins in the 2025/26 FA Cup, the 2025/26 Premier League, the 2026/27 Premier League and the 2026/27 Champions League. Liverpool picked up three yellow cards and one red card. Liverpool: five substitutions. Man City: two yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Man City. Jeremy Doku scored in minute 68 following entry for Man City in the 56th minute. Joško Gvardiol, on in the 66th minute, provided an assist. Ayyoub Bouaddi entered for Man City at 80 minutes and later was booked. Man City finished with a clean sheet.